NL25 How to play this draw

[Lostit]

I think I fold and throw up. I think the villain has it. He was the third call preflop, which makes some of those suited connectors marginally good calls in 2nd position 3-way. He then check/raised all in when faced with aggression and he's a straightforward player. There's no straight flush draw here, so reasonably I think he has either a made straight or a stupidly played set.

Regardless of whether he actually has it, should we call?
It costs 15 to win 40, or 37%. You need a Q or a 7, of which we can assume the villain has 1. Lets also assume that the chances of him playing a set are equal to you hitting a higher set or making a runner runner boat, so thats a wash. So you have 7 outs (4 queens + 4 7's minus one that is probably in the villains hand). With the rules of 2 and 4, on the flop, you have a 28% chance of hitting and no implied odds because he's all in. Now also discount the fact that if he has QJ, all your 7's became irrelevant, and you have one less J for you boat. Either way you're far short of you 38%.

For anyone who thinks this is a bluff, how often does a straightforward player, check/re-raise all in versus a good sized flop bet? Enough to make up the difference between whats probably a 25% chance of winning and the 38% needed to call this hand? Probably not.

[CrazyJoe113]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I fold and throw up. I think the villain has it. He was the third call preflop, which makes some of those suited connectors marginally good calls in 2nd position 3-way. He then check/raised all in when faced with aggression and he's a straightforward player. There's no straight flush draw here, so reasonably I think he has either a made straight or a stupidly played set.

Regardless of whether he actually has it, should we call?
It costs 15 to win 40, or 37%. You need a Q or a 7, of which we can assume the villain has 1. Lets also assume that the chances of him playing a set are equal to you hitting a higher set or making a runner runner boat, so thats a wash. So you have 7 outs (4 queens + 4 7's minus one that is probably in the villains hand). With the rules of 2 and 4, on the flop, you have a 28% chance of hitting and no implied odds because he's all in. Now also discount the fact that if he has QJ, all your 7's became irrelevant, and you have one less J for you boat. Either way you're far short of you 38%.

For anyone who thinks this is a bluff, how often does a straightforward player, check/re-raise all in versus a good sized flop bet? Enough to make up the difference between whats probably a 25% chance of winning and the 38% needed to call this hand? Probably not.

[/ QUOTE ]

UTG raiser, who calls a reraise and only opens 6% of the time and you think he has QJ, 67 or 7J almost ALL of the time? a set is so much more likely than a straight, 77 or an overpair i think is more likely than a straight.

[Mr_Pathetic]

I ran stove on what I believe to be his range and I come up wiht 30% for me.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.274% 32.38% 02.89% 13464 1203.00 { JhJs }
Hand 1: 64.726% 61.83% 02.89% 25710 1203.00 { 77+, QJs, QJo }

This is the more likely range

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.173% 24.90% 03.27% 8874 1167.00 { JhJs }
Hand 1: 71.827% 68.55% 03.27% 24432 1167.00 { 88+, QJs, QJo }

Edit: I included QJ but I really think he has some sort of PP here most of the time which is why I felt like an idiot after betting this flop.

[Lostit]

[ QUOTE ]
I ran stove on what I believe to be his range and I come up wiht 30% for me.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.274% 32.38% 02.89% 13464 1203.00 { JhJs }
Hand 1: 64.726% 61.83% 02.89% 25710 1203.00 { 77+, QJs, QJo }

This is the more likely range

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.173% 24.90% 03.27% 8874 1167.00 { JhJs }
Hand 1: 71.827% 68.55% 03.27% 24432 1167.00 { 88+, QJs, QJo }

Edit: I included QJ but I really think he has some sort of PP here most of the time which is why I felt like an idiot after betting this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at the numbers in either one of these ranges. You need to be better than 38% ($15 to win $40)to call, and neither one is.

Also, if he has a pocket pair and hit a set, then you've got 10 outs, or %40 pct. So best case, you're break even on the call, worst case you're serious -EV (QJ).

The numbers tell the tale clearly, as played, this is a fold.

[Nick Royale]

Incredibly standard call.