I just know I'm beat but...

[goofball]

Villian is zero2lose. He plays TAG PF and I haven't noticed any gaping holes postflop feel free to chime in about that though. He does seem to be semi-timid with me and we have played a lot together. I haven't noticed if that's just me or a general policy of his.

40/10ish player open limps in MP, I raise with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the HJ, CO coldcalls, Villian coldcalls on the button, fishlimper calls.

Flop(4 BBs): A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
limper checks, I bet, CO folds, villian calls, limper calls.

Turn(5.5 BBs): Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
limper checks, I bet, villian calls, limper folds.

River(7.5 BBs): 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
I...

Here's the thing. I just feel like I'm never ahead of him and that he always has me outkicked. As he called on the river it just dawned on me. If I bet and he raises I can fold easily. But I hate betting, and I have checkcalling and I hate checkfolding. If I check he might value bet something like KhQh (i'm not sure) so I really have to call. And I know that if I'm calling a bet and will fold to a raise I might as well just go ahead and bet, but I just hated doing it.

[charlieD]

i like check/calling
i think he will take a free showdown with KhQh and JhQh, value bet an ace (which is probably better than yours) and bluff a busted flush draw like KhJh and ThJh

[goofball]

Charlie - thanks for the input. I'm still torn about this one sine I don't really think villian does very much bluffing. If i check and he bets it's a very marginal call. Meh. I bet, he called with AT.

[Joe Tall]

He'll have QhJh or some heart w/a piece often enough that he'll look you up on the river. Yeah, sometimes he'll call and you get shown AT, but there is just enough value in a bet.

[Jeffage]

I would just check call the river. He may have taken a flop with a suited connector due to the money odds (maybe a black 68 or hearts) and obviously sees the river with these holdings. If he has an ace, why wouldn't he work a raise in postflop in this multiway pot?

If you bet, you only get called by him if you're beaten, but a check may induce a bluff. I'm checking with the intention of calling.

Jeff

[stigmata]

I was a little suprised he showed up with AT, anyway, here's my thought process during this sort of hand:

I'm thinking an unkown TAG cold-calls, and calls flop & turn on an Axx flop, what hand does he have? A cold-call here is usually a low-mid pocket pair or a decent suited connector.

Maybe he's slow-playing a set and going for overcalls, but I am suprised he hasn't raised it at some point. This makes me put weight on the fact he has some sort of drawing hand, e.g KQs or QJs mostly. There's possibly some value in a bet against these sorts of hands.

Alternatively, you could snap off a bluff against some draw that compltely whiffed the river, and I can see some value there too. I think it's close, but I probably bet-fold mostly, check-call sometimes, and never check-fold.

Oh well, just take a note and move on to the next hand.....

[The DaveR]

[ QUOTE ]
i like check/calling
i think he will take a free showdown with KhQh and JhQh, value bet an ace (which is probably better than yours) and bluff a busted flush draw like KhJh and ThJh

[/ QUOTE ]

If he plays "semi-timid" against the hero than calling is a bad, bad idea.

[cts]

I've played a bunch of hands with villain (about 20/10/2) and am surprised by the cold call. From my records he has cold called three times, with 77, 77, and 99. He also consistently 3-bets preflop with AK so I would rule that hand out. He would have raised the turn if he cold-called with AQ(s) and I would expect him to fold AJ and AT preflop. So I would definitely bet the river and fold to a raise.

[siegfriedandroy]

dam, this is all pretty bleak!

[siegfriedandroy]

it seems like your analysis argues for betting