An Ax spot I get wrong

[milesdyson]

i'm just saying if you have that read. raising flop will result in you losing less to aj-ak and winning more from tt-kk. alas, i rarely raise these postflop.

[Stealthy]

[ QUOTE ]
"Raising will only fold their bluffs or weak hands and allow them to 3-bet strong ones"

sb in hand 2 does not fold tt-kk postflop. the only ax hands he coldcaps are like ak aq maybe ajs. if he will 3bet those and let us fold turn or river ui then it's an easy flop raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

It only really saves us money if we are making a safe turn fold and we can never be completely sure that we are. Especially against a 30/20 type player. I think calling down is so much better as he might expect us to raise with an ace so MIGHT bet worse all the way. Whilst TT-KK might pay off an extra SB or BB, against his entire 3 betting range calling down is the way of least pain and solid +EV. If you were feeling brave and got some kind of timing tell then a river raise might be good as a 3 bet is obviously a super easy fold.

[milesdyson]

note im only talking about the 2nd hand which is definitely different than the 1st.

[ QUOTE ]
It only really saves us money if we are making a safe turn fold and we can never be completely sure that we are.

[/ QUOTE ]
yeah thats why i mentioned having a read. with this read raising the flop is obviously the best play.

many players will call a flop raise and turn and river bets with TT-KK here and since he coldcapped preflop theres nothing like ATo (lkely not even AJo) in his range.

[ QUOTE ]
If you were feeling brave and got some kind of timing tell then a river raise might be good as a 3 bet is obviously a super easy fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
people always just call down Ax in hero's spot here. so when villain bets the river, he is often outkicking hero or just making a bet because he is incapable of checkfolding a pair. waiting to raise the river would be a pretty big disaster. other than doing something like "raise cap flop, raise cap turn," it's the worst line you can take in the hand imo.

[vmacosta]

im getting sick of agreeing with milesdyson all the time but hand 2 is a pretty easy flop raise. hand 1 is maybe a fold on the river but i never do.

[NinaWilliams]

[ QUOTE ]
im getting sick of agreeing with milesdyson all the time but hand 2 is a pretty easy flop raise. hand 1 is maybe a fold on the river but i never do.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is hand #1 a raise even if you're calling down vs 3? I usually call down because I dont trust someone to not go nuts here with KK or worse.

[inferno]

lol if you dont think he bets KK/QQ type of hand on the river in hand 2

[Burnsabre]

How it went down in hand 2, even if I raised the flop, I'd still have to call a turn bet because of the draw, and then it would be a sucky river fold because so many bets already went in.... but I like the thinking because not many if any people are folding KK to a raise there. Also, the A8 3 bet was against a 70/30, so the cold cap might not have been as tight a range as usual.