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#41
10-05-2007, 05:25 PM
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Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
I heard approx 2,000 from what I would consider to be a reliable source. Just passing that on, no idea if its true or not.
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#42
10-05-2007, 05:40 PM
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Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
pretty valuable service if you can get his lines and then middle the other way after the ridiculousness of followers push the lines way too far
I know one of the picks last week hit that beautiful middle area
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#43
10-05-2007, 05:40 PM
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Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
so does Illinois v Wisconsin qualify as home unranked favorite v road ranked underdog system? or is that only in basketball?
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#44
10-05-2007, 05:47 PM
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Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
Myturn, do you like the mizzou to score first prop this week? Every time I seem to bet it, it loses, but I'm on it yet again.
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#45
10-05-2007, 05:52 PM
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Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
[ QUOTE ]
You have no idea how many subscribers he has though. If he has 10,000 subscribers and loses 3,000 of them, then that would be a pretty huge effect. [/ QUOTE ] From dropping from a historical 58.1% winrate to 56.1%? Doubtful 30% jump ship over something easily explained as variance for years and years. And the potential to make extra $millions over going 'wrong-way' on a game a week certainly overrides that.
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#46
10-05-2007, 05:54 PM
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Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
[ QUOTE ]
I heard approx 2,000 from what I would consider to be a reliable source. Just passing that on, no idea if its true or not. [/ QUOTE ] That was a WSJournal complete guess, the 2k number. Just used as an example of 2k x $750 = real moniez.
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#47
10-05-2007, 06:46 PM
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Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
[ QUOTE ]
Myturn, do you like the mizzou to score first prop this week? Every time I seem to bet it, it loses, but I'm on it yet again. [/ QUOTE ] I'm debating the price isn't as good as it usually is Mizzou continues to get the ball first every game (in case some reading doesn't know, they always choose to get the ball instead of defering). They've scored first in 3 of their 4 games. The one they didn't was against Illinois when I had a large bet on them scoring first. Mizzou was in FG range and fumbled a snap and had to punt the first drive. Illinois, an exchange later, blocked a punt and ran it in for a TD. The game was 23-7 Mizzou at halftime. However, I'm noticing something ugly with Mizzou this year. Last year, they'd score on their first drive all the time---10 out of 13 games IIRC. This year, they scored on the first drive v WMU and Ill St, but not on Illinois and Ole Miss. Not much of a sample either way. Mizzou has scored on 23 of their 54 drives this year (5 drives ended halves or game)....so that's above 40% to score on their first drive alone. Last year, they torched Nebraska in Lincoln. After watching Ball St and SC torch the Huskers, I'm thinking the blackshirts are no better on D this year. More interesting is that Mizzou has done a good job at not letting opponents score following drives they don't score. However, the Nebraska O is a step-up from what they faced thus far. weather looks good--upper 70s and clear...slight wind Since I don't have a bet on that game or plan to, I'm not worried about correlated plays. Hmmmmm ok I'll be on it again Mizzou to score first v Nebraska bet 1.7u to win 1u good eye....I keep forgetting to check props
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#48
10-05-2007, 06:55 PM
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Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
Yea I was pissed when that happened in the Illinois game. I also remember last year when I was on the same prop and a WR or TE fumbled while running in for the score.
I still thought there was a little value on this line though... hopefully nothing freaky will happen again.
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#49
10-05-2007, 07:03 PM
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Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
yep...you're thinking of the Texas A&M/Mizzou game IIRC....Receiver catches a bomb on the first drive and is running into the end zone dragging a defender, but loses the ball at the half yard line.
I remember the beats
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#50
10-05-2007, 07:29 PM
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Re: $$$ NCAA Saturday Games Thread $$$
I'm an A&M grad and have followed ATM football since Jackie was paying players. The 5-2-4 scheme run under Darnell is a joke. Watch the dbs play 10 yards off the ball on Sat. We haven't played man since 1997 and A&M hasn't blown out even a decent team in years. Keep in mind OSU came to Kyle field in 03 and spanked a team similar to this by 4 touchdowns.
North Carolina (+7.5) Ball St. (-12.5) Wisconsin (+2.5) West Virginia (-24.5) TCU (+3.5) Texas (+10.5) Washington St. (+8.5) Oklahoma St.(+6.5) Rutgers (-3.5) Texas El Paso (+3.5)
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