50NL - JJ on a low-card board

[thing85]

This villain is 28/15/1.5 over 60 hands. No other reads on him.

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $54.80
Hero (BB): $56.85
UTG: $34.55
MP: $3.55
CO: $22.75
BTN: $65.70

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
2 folds, CO calls $0.50, <font color="red">BTN raises to $2.50</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $5.50

Flop: ($16.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $12</font>, BTN calls $12

Turn: ($40.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero...?


I put villain on overcards or a small/medium PP. Since it's unlikely for him to have a draw and he called my large flop bet, what's my play on the turn? Do I push hoping he'll call with lesser PPs? Check to induce a bet? I only have ~$36 behind, so any bet I make is going to wind up putting me all-in at some point...

[NL Newbie]

I like CRAL but i dont reraise preflop vs PAHUD stats since i never know how they play and consider JJ to be a difficult hand even in position.


Hmm - I'm kind of stuck between wondering if 99 will bet if checked to vs our AK... Or will he check behind then fold to a river shove(Scare card like Q... or something).


If i knew villan would bet i CRAI, i guess hes call flop so this is decision street.

Ok i'm betting, 25 - rivers all in, we're all in anyway so may aswell just manipulate the pot for a call.

Thoughts...?

[Genz]

If you think you were good on the flop, you still are on this turn. Shove. I remember a post that ama quoted in his well as one of the most insightfull for him. It was about a JJ hand in a 3bet pot. I think the essence was something like that if you hold JJ in such a pot on the flop, it often doesn't matter if you hold JJ or total air when oop. Here you have an overpair and as played, I think you should go all the way. In general, I hate playing huge pots with JJ oop, because I will hit an overpair less than 30% of the time and have less than two pot sized bets left and villain's range is pretty narrow and doesn't look to nice when he has called the first one on the flop... Long story short, I like a flat call preflop.

[thing85]

My logic behind the PF 3bet is that we often take the pot down right there. Or, if we miss the flop, we probably take it down with a cbet &gt;50% of the time vs. most average players. If we flat call, we probably have to check/fold on flops that we miss (if a Q, K, or A is showing). Calling just seems too passive for me.

[Genz]

Well, stack sizes make the plan to steal post flop a little awkward. If you 3bet here, you have already that much money in the pot that a flop bet will have you basically commited. You don't really have enough leverage. And if villain pushes, you have invested more than 30% of your stack without getting anywhere and if he flat calls, you have the kind of nasty situation you are in now. I really need to have a pretty solid idea about villain's postflop tendencies to make this play. I.e. I want him to be nitty postflop.

[thing85]

I agree with you, Genz, and you're talking about what happens for the ~10% of the time that he calls my 3bet or he 4bets/shoves and I fold. Let's assume every time he calls my 3bet, I check/fold a non-J flop. To make matters simpler, let's say CO folded

(.90)($2.75)+(.10)(-$8)= +$1.68

Obviously, you can adjust the assumptions to make me wrong and this gets even more complicated when you get into % of time he calls a c-bet and the % of time I hit a J and he calls my bets, etc. But on a very basic view of the 3-bet, it seems less profitable for me to just flat call and hope I hit the flop.

[Genz]

Well, I think your fold equity preflop is way smaller. i think you get called by such a player here about 25-35%. He's not really stealing the blinds. So he probably has a hand that he thinks is worth playing. Make it 25% and it becomes very marginal. Make it 30% and it is -EV. Even if I'm too pessimistic about FE, you are basically turning your JJ into a bluff. And I don't bluff much without a pretty specific idea about the player or if I want to bluff that player, I don't take a hand that has decent value and might lead me into a huge pot, but a hand that I can let go off when my bluff is picked up.

[thing85]

You're right in this case - because the CO limped, he probably has a better than usual hand. The simple scenario I created above was considering how it would be *if* CO had folded instead.

I think your strategy here has merit, but I also think 3betting here can be a decent plan as well. Assuming he has QQ-AA a decent % of the time he calls, we probably still get his stack on a J72r flop or a non-scary turn. And the times he has AK/AKs/AQ/AQs, we pick up the pot (most likely) when he completely misses the flop. There's also a wide range of smaller/medium PPs that will call us down or even go all-in if the board is small and non-threatening. My point is, 3betting JJ doesn't completely take away its value as a hand (as opposed to a bluff). And when villain has AA/KK, he probably pushes PF and we fold (or, we *can* fold). This saves us from the times when we flat call and the flop comes T72r and we lose our stack to a bigger overpair.

IMO.

[Genz]

You have to factor in things like bluff pushes, flush and straight draws, monotone boards that can kill your plan. In general I think it's a very marginal spot. Of course you can do it against the right opponent. But in most cases, you will get a huge chunk or even your whole stack in without knowing if you have any chance to be good.