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#1
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Cleveland's got a better record than the Yankees, they're playing at home, and Carmona's ERA is a full run better than Pettite's this year. How in the [censored] are they not favored? Is the pro-Yankees bias really that strong? I almost hesitated to start a thread about this game this close to the first pitch, but I'm really wondering what I'm missing here.
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#2
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[ QUOTE ]
Cleveland's got a better record than the Yankees, they're playing at home, and Carmona's ERA is a full run better than Pettite's this year. How in the [censored] are they not favored? Is the pro-Yankees bias really that strong? I almost hesitated to start a thread about this game this close to the first pitch, but I'm really wondering what I'm missing here. [/ QUOTE ] It's likely not as square as you think, but yes, there is a decent pro-Yankee bias in most lines, so if you already like their opponent in a game, you are usually getting a few extra cents on your line. |
#3
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iggy,
You're not really looking at predictive stats. All of those are things that happened. |
#4
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Looking at the starting pitchers' ERA = bad strategy for weighing your chances in a sports bet !??
Lol @ that. |
#5
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Well, Carmona has a better WHIP and K/BB than Pettitte too. I was looking more for where the line was coming from when listing the earlier stats. I guess the Yanks do have a better run differential than the Indians do, but still. It doesn't seem like anywhere near enough for them to be favored on the road.
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#6
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Carmona's xFIP is about half a run better then Pettite's... and that doesn't even properly reward him for his sick GB%.
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#7
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no way the yankees lose two in a row after their furious charge to make the postseason.
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#8
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[ QUOTE ]
no way the yankees lose two in a row after their furious charge to make the postseason. [/ QUOTE ] no doubt statistics are useless against the yankees |
#9
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That's only if your sample size on Carmona (and Pettitte) is restricted to this season, though. If you regress to the mean using PECOTA or something like that, then they're similar.
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#10
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Solid analysis guys.
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