com 9/18: fold overpair QQ?

profpeebody · #1 10-04-2007, 04:52 PM

commerce 9/18
MP - LAG
CO - I guess LP. Played 5 orbits with him. preflop: plays 80% hands (limps); only saw hims raise once (AJo). postflop: pretty passive; will bet if it is checked to him, otherwise just calls; only saw him raise once (on the turn with the second-nut straight)

I'm in the BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Preflop:
MP raises, CO 3bets, folded to Me, I cap, MP calls, CO calls

Flop (11sb):
2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet, MP calls, CO calls

Turn (7bb):
9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet, MP folds, CO raises, I call

River (11bb):
8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I check, CO bets, I call

I have to cap preflop, right?
Do I fold the turn?

One Outer · #2 10-04-2007, 05:48 PM

Cap preflop is standard (and rocks).

Meh on the turn. Folding is ultra sucky. Remember though, he's passive and he three bet. I expect to see TT/JJ here most of the time and KK once in a while. The just call on the flop seems to be waiting for a safe turn card to raise. A lot of passive players will play JJ/TT like this. The turn is close to me. I'd be more apt to three ball it and expecting JJ to call me down.

So, preflop and flop standard. I like to threebang the turn and lead the river. Getting reraised on this turn is going to be pretty rare.

Scarmiglio · #3 10-04-2007, 08:22 PM

Hmmm. CO's preflop 3-bet range is pretty narrow if he's passive. I expect to see KK or AA here a lot when he raises the turn. That being said, sometimes he will have JJ or maybe even TT and the way you played it is standard.

profpeebody · #4 10-04-2007, 08:25 PM

I considered Villian passive so the turn raise scared me.

I did not think Villiam was a sophisticated player so the turn raise also surprised me. Regardless of whether he had AA/KK or JJ/TT, I couldn't see Villian thinking to himself, "I should wait until a safe card comes and then raise the turn." If he had an overpair, I would suspect he push it on the flop if he thought he was ahead or be passive and just call down.

Can I really 3bet a passive player's turn raise?

One Outer · #5 10-04-2007, 08:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I expect to see KK or AA here a lot when he raises the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you sure he doesn't have JJ more often? It's probably in his three bet range. If we're up against KK or AA we're going to see a raise on the flop normally, don't you think?

One Outer · #6 10-04-2007, 08:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I couldn't see Villian thinking to himself, "I should wait until a safe card comes and then raise the turn."

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm. To be quite honest, my initial thoughts about this are influenced by the fact that we're talking about the Commerce 9/18 game. I'm from Minnesota, I've never been there and I have heard of how aggro it is.

For the most part I'm still sticking with my initial response. If he really is that passive then I guess we're going to see KK or AA a more often but it still looks like JJ to me. You still can't fold, however. I'd still three bang this but calling down is a totally acceptable line given your read. Then again I'm also kind of aggro. So there.

What we're the results, just out of curiosity? you could pm me if you don't want to corrupt the thread.

Ricks · #7 10-04-2007, 08:59 PM

I don't think he is waiting for a safe turn card. It's more likely he's waiting for a big street. That flop is pretty dry.

profpeebody · #8 10-05-2007, 12:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
... the Commerce 9/18 game. I'm from Minnesota, I've never been there and I have heard of how aggro it is.

[/ QUOTE ]

Others who play the game more often than myself, can probably give better comments. I think the game definitely has more aggressive players but there are still a bunch of passives that make the game great. My read on the guy was he was pretty passive post-flop.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think he is waiting for a safe turn card. It's more likely he's waiting for a big street. That flop is pretty dry.

[/ QUOTE ]
so fold to turn raise? call turn, check/call river? other?

I'm thinking I'm way ahead or way behind but I'm not sure what action to take. I'm out of position and leaning toward way behind.

Ricks · #9 10-05-2007, 01:07 AM

I show it down, as you did. You have top pair and your effective odds are 10:2 after he raises the turn. No matter what any of us think his non-raise on the flop means, I don't think that you have played enough with this opponent to confidently lay it down here.

jesse8888 · #10 10-05-2007, 12:19 PM

Nobody thinks the CO can have 99 here?

The turn is one of those situations I find myself in 1 or 2 times a session. I'd call it down and expect to lose. I don't really think you can fold, cause there is stuff (TT and JJ) that you beat, but 3-betting would be crazy, IMHO.