$27 BB vs fish - bet 2nd pair, rivered a str8

[RexWoo]

Hi,

To put it simply, vilain is a fish (60/15/1.1 filetered over 3-4 SnG).

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t1800)
UTG+1 (t825)
MP1 (t1155)
MP2 (t2725)
CO (t1345)
Button (t1825)
SB (t2050)
Hero (t1775)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP2 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, Button calls t50, SB calls t25, Hero checks

Flop: (t150) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets t100</font>, Button calls t100, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>

Turn: (t350) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
<font color="red">Hero bets t250</font>, Button calls t250

River: (t850) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
<font color="red">Hero bets t700</font>, Button calls t700

how is my line ? (mostly flop + turn)

[vers]

I think I check the turn, even though he's a fish, you're not ahead of all that much and you pretty much have to hit a str8 to win I think. Flop even tho he's fishy, I don't lead, I might c/c depending on the size of the bet. I would want to play a much smaller pot here.

[Pocketbear]

I like the flop bet and I don't mind betting the turn at all. I'm probably betting little less on the river so he could call more easily. NH.

[Scotty_12]

Im probably checking every non 9/Q turn here

[Q..]

I don't understand it - are you value betting turn?
Bluffing fish?

im checking turn, betting pot or more river against this guy.

[RexWoo]

Yeah betting the turn with my draw was probably super bad vs this guy.

lol at river call with Th8h, though.

tx all

[sean457j]

If you are optimistic you have 13 outs on the turn to a better hand (Queens,Nines,Eights,Kings). To simplify we will say you have 0.24 chance of winning on the turn and 0.76 chance of losing.

BET 250 on the turn
Called - Pot becomes 850
BET 700 on the river if you hit an out, otherwise C/C

(0.26)*950 - (0.74)*250 = +62

If instead you check the turn, and bet the river if you hit, we get the following

(0.26)*250 = +65

I know this is simplified and doesn't include a few things like him raising or betting, but it seems with those stats that he probably has 'CALL WITH ONE PAIR, RAISE WITH TWO' tattooed to the back of his hand.

[Pudge714]

Turn is close here vs. a passive fish I think I check fold this turn unless he bets small.

[AMT]

i like checking the turn here, perhaps call a small bet but i expect it to check through a lot and value town him on river obv.