OOP - OESD and overs against unknown

[KCrow]

No reads on the villain, doesn't seem particularly loose. I don't like calling this OOP. How does a shove in this situation sound?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $52.40
UTG: $68.45
CO: $48.90
BTN: $95.90
SB: $53.50

Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $1.75</font>, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.25

Flop: ($3.75) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $12.75</font>, <font color="red">Hero?

[Aceium]

He made a pretty substantial raise here. From the play of the hand up until this point, I am not really convinced that your two overs are clean outs. I don' think you have any real fold equity if you shove here, villan is calling for sure.

If you stack in here you are surely getting your money in behind - it's just a question of how far behind you are. If villan has AA, you only have 6 outs. And this seems like a perfectly reasonable hand for him to show up with.

[whyzze]

tbh...It doesn't look like he would fold. his line looks like overpair with that largish reraise. But I am talking out my ass about that.

doing the math probably comes out barely +EV with a very small folding%. I think shoving is going to have a higher EV than folding.

I feel this is his calling range.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

45,540 games 0.062 secs 734,516 games/sec

Board: Th 3s Jc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.453% 30.66% 09.79% 13963 4459.50 { KdQd }
Hand 1: 59.547% 49.75% 09.79% 22658 4459.50 { TT+, 33, AJs, KQs, 98s, AJo, KQo }


shove is ok with me.

[KCrow]

Cheers for the feedback, I shoved villain called with QQ (good read on the overpair). I spiked my king though made up for AA rivering and A against my set of jacks a few hands eariler.

[maciczka]

fold pf. as played fold. Your biggest mistake was to call pf.

[SlickVic]

[ QUOTE ]
fold pf. as played fold. Your biggest mistake was to call pf.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess my whole blind game must be wrong then because I always call with AQ/AJ/KQ type hands plus middle and low pps (all villain dependent obv, thank you CTS) I think folding pf is too nitty imo. I mean, if we 3bet here only hands that crush us call. So I think a call is fine.

I have a question however, why don't we check/call here on the flop instead of lead/shove?

[castigar]

Your call PF was the thing to do. Folding this PF is way too nitty.