Floated with a draw

underthesky · #1 10-04-2007, 12:05 PM

Villain is 15/11/2.8 and breakeven over 12k hands. He's just lost a buyin after raise-calling all-in preflop with QQ. He tilted against me before when I raised his cbet in position - he pushed all-in with an unimproved AK that time.

Effective stack $100
5 players
Blinds $.5/1
iPoker Network

Hero has Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in MP
Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, Villain calls in SB, 1 fold.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (Pot: $9)
Villain checks, Hero bets $7, Villain calls

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (Pot: $23)
Villain bets $17, Hero?

My gut feeling here is to push because I'm putting him on a float with trash. Raise, fold or call?

straight-kobe · #2 10-04-2007, 04:32 PM

Bet definitely looks sketchy. My best guess is a straight draw that missed, but he might also have paired the 9 or the 4 and wanted to see a safe card hit the turn before continuing. If you have a really good read on him, think he's tilting, and that he has a straight draw, you maybe could just call so that he bluffs again on the river if you both miss. But that would be a sick call with an unimproved Q high, but if you have the read, you do have the highest straight draw. I would say 99% of the time, dont do that, and instead if you like your read on him raise and hope he folds. Even if he calls, if your read is right, and he has trash, then you are maybe ahead, and worst case you have 8 straight outs and 6 pair outs. If you dont have a strong read, I would fold it.

Chaos_ult · #3 10-04-2007, 04:39 PM

Push.

His lead is really weak imo, so your fold equity is most likely fairly good.

Even if you're boned, you've got a minimum of 6 outs.

sixhigh · #4 10-04-2007, 04:47 PM

<font color="#FF4444">[*] </font> You need approx. *insertsomemathhere* 52% fold equity for a push. If he's tilting it's quite possible there are many hands in his range that can't stand a raise. But I'd probably make it a normal raise to $60 as it looks more convincing and commits you as well so you can easily call a push or save some bucks if he calls and the river bricks.