|
|
#1
10-04-2007, 07:48 AM
|
|||
|
|||
My 1600th Post: Some Thoughts on Betting Patterns in SS LHE
It's apparently a 2+2 tradition for some posters on their 1600th post to write a long-ish "pooh-bah" post giving back a little to the community. I wanted to talk a bit about specific betting patterns that players may exhibit. I was recently re-reading Matt Lessinger's The Book of Bluffs and it struck me that very few books actually discuss the variations in betting patterns exhibited by different players. Part of this is because there are so many variations that one can't fit them all in a book. Poker strategy authors are usually forced to generalize opponents as loose or tight, passive or aggressive. No one has the space to talk about how your play might change against an opponent who goes for the check-raise in early position on the flop with the nut flush draw, but bets out with a non-nut flush draw (and I know a few players who do that).
There are no universal betting patterns: a given line may mean one thing coming from Player A and another thing coming from Player B. If you wanted to be more specific, my bet may mean different things depending on whether Player A is to my immediate left and Player B is to his left or vice versa, but most players don't think on that level. But just because there are no universal betting patterns that hold true for every player, that doesn't mean that your typical opponents at a small stakes hold em table are a bunch of random idiots who do everything on a whim and have no strategy. I've spent some time developing my game, and after going through a few bad swings, I feel comfortable with a game that gives me a table image seems so tight that it has people chatting about it. I can't avoid my table image. I'm an obviously intelligent (no matter how much I try to disguise it) Asian (which I can't disguise) who doesn't play very many hands (which is obvious to even relatively unobservant opponents since I play much tighter than average pre-flop in the blinds). It makes it a bit harder to build big pots, so I tend to focus on reading my opponents to squeeze out maximum value. Most poker players may not seem logical to you, but their actions usually seem logical to themselves. They know why they are doing things, even if they are doing stupid things like drawing to a chop when they believe they are behind, as one player I know has admitted to doing at the table. This internal self-consistency often makes them predictable. And when a player is predictable, you can take advantage of that. I make the effort to notice, which is why I feel that my strengths in playing small stakes hold em include value-betting hands that don't necessarily beat top pair, bluff-catching, making the occasional bluff, and folding hands that are top pair or better when they are beat. The truth is that I don't rely on physical tells very much. On that front, the most meaningful tells are when a player telegraphs that he plans on calling a bet or when he telegraphs that he will bet if I check. And that just means that you know he is going to bet. You still have to interpret his action as representing a strong hand, a decent hand, a draw, or a bluff. Instead, I rely on logical hand-reading. While it is true that a great many small stakes player playing seemingly random, most of them act in accordance with an internally consistent logic. Don't let anyone tell you differently. For example, a calling station isn't necessarily just calling thoughtlessly. Some calling stations will call down as long as they think they are drawing live or that they beat the worst hand that you would bet, because they hate being bluffed. If you can convince them that you never bluff, they will fold bottom pair and perhaps better hands on the end, but call down against everyone else at the table. So here are some betting patterns that I have noticed. This isn't meant to be a comprehensive list or even a list of the ten most important or most common betting patterns among my opponents. Some might turn out useful once every few months. But you should be in a receptive state that can recognize these sorts of details when you sit down at the table. 1. "ZOMG, there's a flush draw!" In small stakes limit hold em, I honestly believe that one of the most important skills is recognizing betting patterns when there is a possible flush draw out there. Many who have played in a "no fold em" game have developed an intense "flush phobia" after being shell-shocked from getting drawn out on over and over again. These players are normally capable of going for a check-raise to protect their hand in some appropriate circumstances, but once they see two suited cards, their discipline in adhering to their plan goes out the window and they end up betting out from early position into a draw heavy board, thinking that an attempted check-raise that fails when no one bets is a complete disaster and that they need to go for the sure thing and charge one bet. If this attitude is combined with a tendency to check and call with draws rather than build pots for value, this makes a player's hand range when he bets out on the flop heavily weighted toward top pair or better. Against certain players, if you have top pair with a bad kicker (such as when you decided to play a hand like K5s on the button in a multi-way limped pot), your correct action may be to just call on the flop when you can't knock anyone out and strongly consider folding the turn unimproved. A similar occurrence sometimes happens on the turn when a backdoor flush draw gets halfway there. A player who might have been planning on check-raising the turn with a strong hand like a flopped set will now bet out because he fears giving a free card to someone who may have picked up a flush draw, even if the action on the flop strongly suggests that an aggressive player will come again on the turn. However, don't confuse this betting pattern with the player who bets out on the turn after picking up a draw after he has bet the turn and called a raise on the flop. A turn bet into a flop aggressor means different things from different players. 2. "ZOMG, there's a flush!" Some players have flush phobia to the point that they cannot bet on a street when a flush card comes if they do not have a flush, especially if they are in early position in a multi-way pot. (Some of these players are capable of betting with a non-flush in a heads-up pot, but not in a multi-way pot). You can bet non-flush hands for value and to protect against flush draws, although you should be wary of players shifting to a check-and-call mode with a set or straight against a possible flush and take those hands into account. One amusing example of "flush phobia" was a player who played suited connectors and flopped a nine-high straight for the nuts. He bet the flop and turn and checked the river when the flush came in because he was afraid someone was drawing to a higher flush. He missed a bet from my flopped top two pair as well as from a calling station who I'm pretty sure had flopped middle pair and wouldn't fold. Against a player who is insanely afraid of flushes, you can lay down hands that normally seem to be getting the right price from a big pot because they will always have a flush when they bet when a flush card comes. Be cautious, though. I've only known a few players who were that predictable, but I have laid down a hand like TPTK that was drawing dead on the turn in a medium-sized pot against an obvious flush held by a player who had previously shown an inability to bet two pair and a set into a possible flush. If a hand gets checked around, some players are capable of betting on the river. Others will check two pair or a straight again. Of course, these players will often call the turn and river anyways, so you are missing bets if you try to get fancy and slowplay. 3. "ZOMG! There's a straight/straight draw!" The above apply to a lesser extent when there is a straight or straight draw possible. Some players are incapable of betting when four to a possible straight is on the board and if you know these players, you can lay down a set or two pair against them when they bet into you. 4. OOP lead when they hit their draw. Since small stakes hold em regulars are used to seeing players shut down when a draw gets there, some of them will come out and bet if they hit their draw, especially on the river. I once saw two players cap it on a AJ5 flop with two diamonds while a third player who was not a complete calling station was just calling. When a 3 came, the third player led out into the other two who just called. When the river came a diamond, that third player bet and turned over 42 of diamonds, as I expected. One of the players showed his AJ while the third mucked unseen what was obviously A5 or 55. That struck me as one of the more obvious illustrations of how players are afraid to or incapable of leading when they hit their draws. Also, if the board pairs, some players will lead out with trips when they hit their weak draw to trips or two pair. Some players are so predictable that if the river pairs the bottom flop card and they lead out into a large field, then trips is the worst card in their range and I can fold top pair even if the pot seems big (but I won't fold against the players who will bluff or try to get a bet in because they know that passive players often freeze when the board pairs on the end). 5. The flop overcall-reraise. EP bets the flop. There are a few callers. You raise with a raising hand. EP just calls, but surprisingly, one of the callers reraises you. Some of these players may be jamming a drawy hand in a multi-way pot, but other players bet this way when they were planning on slowplaying but decided to push a strong hand like a flopped set once they saw action. I see this betting pattern in some players when they flop a set or better or when they flop trips on a paired board. I once raised a LAG while holding top pair medium kicker and folded the flop when a player I knew well did an overcall-reraise. He wouldn't have been so aggressive with a draw and would have raised the flop with top pair or two pair, but would have slowplayed a set. Unless this player is tilted, maniacal, or rocking a short stack that will be all-in, most of the time, I've found that this betting pattern is a set or a draw. Few players play both draws and strong made hands this way, so it often gives you a strong idea of where you are at on a cheap street. 6. Bet and call a raise on the flop, then lead out on the turn with two pair and go for the check-raise with a set. Some players act this way because two pair feels more vulnerable to a free card than a set. I've found noticing this betting pattern useful when I have the right odds to chase with a hand that has outs against two pair and is drawing dead against a set. 7. Never bluffing in a small pot. It's a four-way limped pot that has been checked around on the flop and turn. Or maybe it's a heads-up raised pot that went check-check. You have enough to beat ace-high, but little else. On a seemingly harmless river card, one player comes to life and bets. Some players will never try to pick up the pot in this situation because they think that the pot is too small to be worth bluffing at. When the pot is small, players with this betting pattern will never bet with nothing and probably won't bet a weak hand like bottom pair. Other players won't be stopped by the size of the pot. Knowing if your opponent exhibits this betting pattern is useful when your hand has a lot of its value tied up in potential bluff-catching. It's also useful because players who don't bluff at small pots often also don't believe in calling with a weak hand to stop a bluff, so even though you have lower odds for trying to steal a small pot, you're chances of success are much greater. 8. Preflop overlimp-reraise with AK. Some players limp-reraise with big pairs. Others limp-reraise with suited connectors or random junk. A few will limp-reraise only with exactly AK or possibly AQ, especially if they previously just called when others had limped in the hand before them. I've run into a couple of players who exhibited exactly this betting pattern; they're too aggressive with pairs to limp in the first place with AA or KK and not aggressive enough with non-pair hands to do it with anything other than a big ace (which is why they limped with AK in the first place). 9. Check-raise the flop with a draw and check the turn when they miss. Few players go for a check-raise twice. (Some do, and I am aggressive enough to walk into their trap more than most.) I know one player who leads the flop with her stronger draws, like flush draws, and check-raises with weaker draws, like gutshots. She confused me until I figured out that she was betting different types of draws differently; then she became very easy to read. Obviously, you should consider three-betting the flop and betting on a safe turn card. 10. Three-betting the flop only with two pair or better. Some players will never three-ball the flop without at least two pair. One such player once expressed shock that I reraised with merely TPTK when he raised to isolate a maniac on the flop. I've learned to be a bit more cautious with a hand like top pair plus the nut flush draw against players who exhibit this pattern and not lose more than necessary when I miss my draw. ---- My goal isn't to catalog all of the possible betting patterns (although I would be interested in seeing some replies about unusual betting patterns you have noticed and exploited in some opponents). Rather, I hope this post has some value in talking about how to think about poker. The game is all about judging the relative value of your hand, not its absolute value. Using betting pattern recognition to narrow your opponent's holdings is one tool. 
|
|
#5
10-04-2007, 02:30 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: My 1600th Post: Some Thoughts on Betting Patterns in SS LHE
nh
|
|
#8
10-04-2007, 05:11 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: My 1600th Post: Some Thoughts on Betting Patterns in SS LHE
[ QUOTE ]
Well this settles it: After reading this My Pooh Bah post will be about food in the poker room. [/ QUOTE ] if you want to write one that rates cocktail waitresses at your local establishment I wouldnt complain [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
