NL50 is this line +EV?

nitramee · #1 10-04-2007, 10:03 AM

against unknown.Do i have enough FE here against avarage player.

100bb stacks

Hero J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

PF.

UTG raises to 2, hero calls, bb calls.

Flop:T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

UTG bets 5 ,hero calls.

Turn :8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img](pot~15)

Utg bets 12, hero is all-in

checktheriver · #2 10-04-2007, 10:10 AM

Villain's line looks very much like an overpair or a set (raise UTG, he fired with 2 people to act on the flop and fired again on the turn), and I just don't think he'll fold to your turn raise. I would just call the turn since any d, J or T is probably an out.

thac · #3 10-04-2007, 10:13 AM

I'd rather just call because your FD is disguised and if you shove, you don't really have FE with the line he's taking - and if he does fold, he didn't have a hand anyways (he can improve with like the A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and we win a decent sized pot). I really like flatting here, not calling a river bet if we don't hit trips/two pair/flush - just because I don't think an unknown fires three barrels with air.

You're No Daisy · #4 10-04-2007, 10:27 AM

I don't think you have much fold equity here. Villian's hand looks like an over pair here. If he has a set I'm sure he snap called. I would have called the turn instead of check raising all-in. You're a 70%/30% dog on the turn and you're shoving on a draw with one card left? A villain with a range of TT+ (which is evident here IMO) isn't going anywhere on this board. If the flush doesn't hit, your top pair with weak kicker is no good. Granted, I understand your goal is to get villain to fold but he isn't going anywhere.

I have made this type of play in the past and it rarely works out.

AC

catoandtonic · #5 10-04-2007, 10:28 AM

I put a range in pokerstove which I estimate to be the hands you would be up against if called.

Board: Th 3d 6c 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 73.106% 73.11% 00.00% 1158 0.00 { TT+, 66, 33, ATs, ATo }
Hand 1: 26.894% 26.89% 00.00% 426 0.00 { JdTd }

Based on this, for every 100 hands you get called, you will lose ~3650.

When villain folds you win 26. Villain has to fold ~141 times to make back our 3650. So, villain has to fold 141 out of 241 hands, or ~58% for this to be profitable.