TOP: HU on the end concepts

[DarkMagus]

Think of your bet as being seperate to what's in the pot. Suppose you're playing some limit game where the betting is capped at 1 bet (e.g. no raising). Suppose you're last to act, so that you have the option to check and see the showdown for free. Let's also assume that you're never bluffing (e.g. your opponent will never fold a better hand).

If your hand can beat 70% of all hands, and your opponent will call with his top 40% of hands, you'd be dumb to bet because you lose that last bet 3 out of 4 times when called, while you simply had the option of a free showdown. You simply need to decide if you have a strong enough hand to beat the majority of the range he will call with.

If you check, you don't forfeit the pot, you simply forfeit winning or losing that one last bet, but you still get a shot at the pot. On the other hand, folding TO a bet means forfeiting the entire pot, and this is why pot odds matter when you're deciding whether or not to make a call.

Obviously in real life you have to take into account possibilities like making him fold a better hand, getting raised, or, if out of position, checking to induce a bluff. But still, the mathematics of deciding to value bet on the end are mostly determined by how many 2nd best hands he will call with compared to how many better hands he could have.

[maverickai]

OK, thanks for all the explanation, but there is still a nagging thought in my mind.

Do we have to consider pot odds when we are first to act, and deciding between a bet or check? Let's say I use pot equity to evaluate if it's useful to bet OOP on the river in LHE. Assume I have 30% pot equity based on my hand and villian's hand range. But the pot is 10BB. So by putting in 1BB, I'm only contributing 10% of the pot, does it mean +EV for me?

Or should my thought process be, "What are my chances of winning that additional river 1BB if I bet?"

[mykey1961]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, thanks for all the explanation, but there is still a nagging thought in my mind.

Do we have to consider pot odds when we are first to act, and deciding between a bet or check? Let's say I use pot equity to evaluate if it's useful to bet OOP on the river in LHE. Assume I have 30% pot equity based on my hand and villian's hand range. But the pot is 10BB. So by putting in 1BB, I'm only contributing 10% of the pot, does it mean +EV for me?

Or should my thought process be, "What are my chances of winning that additional river 1BB if I bet?"

[/ QUOTE ]

your decision process shouldn't be your hand vs the villian's range.

The factors to consider are your range, the villians range, and the pot size, how you expect the villian to respond to your action which each of his possible holdings, and finally your specific hand.

In the section of Theory of Poker that this thread is discussing, the examples given are where your opponent knows pretty well if he's way ahead, or way behind.

If you are ahead, and your opponent knows this then he will fold to your bet, so you win the same as if you checked.

If you are behind, and your opponent knows this then he will call your bet so you lose more than if you checked.

An example from a real hand I played.

Preflop in the BB, I had K4s, UTG limped, SB completed, I checked.

Flop was A66 (one of 6's was my suit) Check, check, check.

Turn was 9 (of my suit) Check, Check, Check.

River was A (of my suit) I now had the nut flush. While I had a good hand, if I bet, what would someone call me with?
I checked, SB pushed all in, UTG called, I folded.

SB had 66, UTG had AA.

[DarkMagus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
OK, thanks for all the explanation, but there is still a nagging thought in my mind.

Do we have to consider pot odds when we are first to act, and deciding between a bet or check? Let's say I use pot equity to evaluate if it's useful to bet OOP on the river in LHE. Assume I have 30% pot equity based on my hand and villian's hand range. But the pot is 10BB. So by putting in 1BB, I'm only contributing 10% of the pot, does it mean +EV for me?

Or should my thought process be, "What are my chances of winning that additional river 1BB if I bet?"

[/ QUOTE ]

your decision process shouldn't be your hand vs the villian's range.

The factors to consider are your range, the villians range, and the pot size, how you expect the villian to respond to your action which each of his possible holdings, and finally your specific hand.

In the section of Theory of Poker that this thread is discussing, the examples given are where your opponent knows pretty well if he's way ahead, or way behind.

If you are ahead, and your opponent knows this then he will fold to your bet, so you win the same as if you checked.

If you are behind, and your opponent knows this then he will call your bet so you lose more than if you checked.

An example from a real hand I played.

Preflop in the BB, I had K4s, UTG limped, SB completed, I checked.

Flop was A66 (one of 6's was my suit) Check, check, check.

Turn was 9 (of my suit) Check, Check, Check.

River was A (of my suit) I now had the nut flush. While I had a good hand, if I bet, what would someone call me with?
I checked, SB pushed all in, UTG called, I folded.

SB had 66, UTG had AA.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, how is this not considering your villian's range?
You put the range of hands he calls you with as boats and better. You beat 0% of that range.
Regardless of what you put the SB on, you can pretty safely put the range of hands that UTG calls with as boats or better. You beat 0% of that range.
Therefore you fold.

[mykey1961]

Interesting, you interpreted the "shouldn't" as applying to the "villian's range".

I was trying to apply the "shouldn't" to "my hand"

The example by Jay and yourself implied that the decision to call or fold by the villian might be close. In T.O.P. examples that decision was far from close for the villian.

In my real hand example, the decision for the villian(s) was also far from close in comparison to my hand.

I don't think it's all about how much of his calling range that I can beat. I think the more important piece is how much of his range that could beat me would he fold to a raise.

Something like 6x might fold maybe even 99, but I doubt 66 or Ax is going to fold.

I don't automatically fold because I beat 0% of thier calling range. I figure I have to pay off small value bets to reduce the chances I'm bluffed off hands in the future.

Fortunately for me, the SB decided to go for an all-in "value bet".