$200, tough spot with rivered set

[MasterLJ]

Villain is a solid regular.

My image should be LAG but solid.

I guess there are a few questions here on the river. I think c/c on the river is infinitely better than bet/call because I feel a villain's pushing range on the river is extremely small and almost all of which beats TT with the very minor exception of JT.

I'm going to show the action on how it went down, but would like to hear alternates and possible percentages of the time we are good when villain pushes.

What hands do we extract value out of when we bet river here?

EDIT: Can I lead any of the streets? Personally I feel leading flop makes the most sense out of flop lead or turn lead, but I hate both.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BTN: $406.85
Hero (SB): $209.85
BB: $452
UTG: $234.35

Pre-Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $6</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $25</font>, BB folds, BTN calls $19

Flop: ($52) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($52) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($52) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $50</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $381.85 and is All-In</font>, Hero calls $134.85 and is All-In

Results: $421.70 Pot ($2 Rake)

[orange]

tbh, i dont really like c/c all that much on the river. i still think there is value from whatever he could have and i think he checks behind a ton.

i dont really mind turning tt into a bluff. i typically bet the flop because when you check the flop your stuck into a nasty spot in later streets and playing a crude guessing game on villan's ranges.

[MasterLJ]

[ QUOTE ]
tbh, i dont really like c/c all that much on the river. i still think there is value from whatever he could have and i think he checks behind a ton.

i dont really mind turning tt into a bluff. i typically bet the flop because when you check the flop your stuck into a nasty spot in later streets and playing a crude guessing game on villan's ranges.

[/ QUOTE ]

How sure, if ever, do you have to be about villain's range to fold on the river?

[orange]

pretty damn. i think he's got AQ alot here. i would think that jj/ak usually bet the turn (in general). still, i think you see enough spazzy [censored] here to warrent stacking off here.

[MasterLJ]

[ QUOTE ]
pretty damn. i think he's got AQ alot here. i would think that jj/ak usually bet the turn (in general). still, i think you see enough spazzy [censored] here to warrent stacking off here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wanted to hear feedback on this specifically if anyone has anything to add.

And thanks as always orange.

For the record, there was no fist-pumping when the T fell on the river as I felt it was a terrible card in which if I v-bet and villain pushes I'm probably good less than 15-20% of the time. Not to mention I felt that villain's action had narrowed his hand down to AQ/perhaps AT/small pp of which only AQ pushes that river.

[Casper05]

I think you played this fine, but I normally bet the flop.

You can't really bet the turn to rep AK for a couple reasons. 1) villain would bet QQ+ on the flop, with the exception maybe of AA some small % of the time. 2) Because we can be almost certain that villain would bet QQ on the flop, repping AK turns our hand into a bluff and only folds out hands we beat.

The river is interesting. I thin villain checks AK some of the time on the turn, but how often does he shove with it when the action is like this? I would think never...what does he beat that calls? The only hand he calls with is AK, which he would also bet with. he is shoving AQ and folding 99-. He never has JJ.

River calling range- AK
River betting range- AK, AQ,
River shoving range- AQ

Solution- check to get value from AK (the same value we get from betting) while minimizing our losses when he has AQ...with the added benefit of giving him the chance to bluff.

Sorry if that is incoherent

[Fonkey123]

4 handed I'd just bet/call the flop.

If I decided to check the flop I'd prob just turn my hand into a bluff and bet turn.

On the river c/c is unimaginably bad it's not funny.

[MasterLJ]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you played this fine, but I normally bet the flop.

You can't really bet the turn to rep AK for a couple reasons. 1) villain would bet QQ+ on the flop, with the exception maybe of AA some small % of the time. 2) Because we can be almost certain that villain would bet QQ on the flop, repping AK turns our hand into a bluff and only folds out hands we beat.

The river is interesting. I thin villain checks AK some of the time on the turn, but how often does he shove with it when the action is like this? I would think never...what does he beat that calls? The only hand he calls with is AK, which he would also bet with. he is shoving AQ and folding 99-. He never has JJ.

River calling range- AK
River betting range- AK, AQ,
River shoving range- AQ

Solution- check to get value from AK (the same value we get from betting) while minimizing our losses when he has AQ...with the added benefit of giving him the chance to bluff.

Sorry if that is incoherent

[/ QUOTE ]

That's totally coherent.

I felt I "had" to lead for value all the while saying this was a sick sick sick hand to a buddy who was sweating before I put out the value bet.

In retrospect I think c/c is the ONLY way to play this type of hand as you are getting value of AK a very small percentage of the time and letting in a lot of opportunities for villain to bluff.