Re: Fun Hand for Interesting & Varied Analyses
I don't think it is really that badly played by anyone.
UTG has to call 7000 into a pot of over 30k (assuming SB and BB that aren't in the stacks + antes) with the chance to knock out 2 players and it won't really kill his chip stack. But he also sees that UTG+1 has a hand that he likes, probably not huge or he would have reraised PF, so UTG trys to isolate against the 2 allins because if he just calls getting 4.25-1 he is giving UTG+1 5.25-1 odds to call as well.
So against MP1 and MP2, UTG only has to win about 20% of the time to breakeven. Against reasonable ranges for MP1 and MP2, UTG should have 25-30% equity.
UTG+1's call is a little suspect. He is getting 5.25-1 on the main pot, 1-1 on the side pot and a little over 3-1 for the whole thing. It would be tough to believe that no matter how loose UTG is that KQo has 50% equity against UTGs range (he could easily be doing this with an A), and I don't think that he has 20% equity against everyone elses ranges. I think it is probably close and might be a breakeven play, but I can't imagine that his call could be +EV.
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