% hands won by a winning limit player?

[pokahjunkie]

I have a question that I wasn't sure where to post. My brother is limit player and believes he has been running bad. When playing full ring he believes that he should be winning 10% of hands and he winning about 3% and when playing short handed he is winning about 5% when he feels he should be winning 15-20% of hands depending on the size of the game. I say that a good player is not going to win as many hands because they are not in nearly as many pots. I think he is running a little bad but not as he thinks. What would be a normal win% for a winning full ring player and shorthanded player in the long run. Stats from you limit players would be great. If this should be moved to limit holdem please do so. Discuss

[AaronBrown]

If there are 10 players, you will be dealt the winning hand 10% of the time. If you win fewer than 10% of the pots, it's because you're throwing away more winning hands than the other players. That's rarely a good idea in limit. If the other players are loose, you're the payoff to winning is too high to throw away lots of winning hands. If the other players are already tight, you've got to be too tight.

In theory you can win with any winning percentage greater than zero (or some minimum level to compensate for the blinds). In practice, most winning players in limit win about their share of the pots (but win more when they win and lose less when they lose than other players).

[djk123]

wouldn't the 10% only be true if u never folded? A good TAG playing in a limp happy fish fest is going to be playing way fewer hands than the rest of the table, meaning he'd be folding lots of winning hands. yet he would most likely be the biggest winner in the game right?

[jay_shark]

Not necessarily true djk

In limit hold , if you're at a 10-handed table , then you should be playing ~ the top 10%(1/10) of hands utg. At 9-handed table , you should be playing ~ the top 11.11%(1/9)of hands . At an 8 -handed table you should be playing ~ the top 12.5% of hands , etc etc . On the button , you should be playing ~ the top 33% of all hands . You may have your own opinion of what you believe is the top x% of all hands .

The number of hands you should be playing is often determined by the antes /blinds that are in play . So if a game had a structure without the sb , then there is less incentive to be playing hands like a-j utg at a full ring . Likewise , if a game has 2 big blinds , then there is even more incentive to play something like a-j utg .

[Siegmund]

Returning to OP's question -- a winning player likely plays somewhat fewer starting hands (ones that win more than their fair share) than his opponents do.

My memory - from last year when I was playing a lot of 10-handed LHE online - is that I was winning about 8% of my pots on average. There would be days I would win only 5% (usually days I was breaking even or a small loser); the days I actually won 10% or more of pots I was usually a big winner.

[pokahjunkie]

[ QUOTE ]
Returning to OP's question -- a winning player likely plays somewhat fewer starting hands (ones that win more than their fair share) than his opponents do.

My memory - from last year when I was playing a lot of 10-handed LHE online - is that I was winning about 8% of my pots on average. There would be days I would win only 5% (usually days I was breaking even or a small loser); the days I actually won 10% or more of pots I was usually a big winner.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is basically how I felt about it. You are going to be playing less hands than the rest of the players so you are not going to win as many hands. Even though my bro is running bad he is not running as bad as he thinks. I guess the only way to know for sure would be to get a limit player with thousands of hands logged to check his stats.

[AaronBrown]

The 10% assumes everyone plays every hand. You get the same result if everyone plays the same way, whether loose or tight.

It's true that a tight player will win fewer than his share of pots, but can more than make up for it by putting less money into losing pots. In no limit, it's certainly possible to be a winning player with very few wins.

I still maintain that it's hard to do that in limit. It's true that you'll fold some hands that would have won, like 72o when the turn and river were both going to be 7's. But other people will fold similar eventual winning hands as well, so that shouldn't hurt your 10%.

If you're winning less than 10% it means (a) you're playing tight and folding hands that would have won and (b) you're not getting much respect, or you would win your share of pots when other people fold to you. That can happen, but usually not for long, at least at reasonable stakes. In my experience, the better limit players usually win close to their fair share of pots, and make money by putting less into losing pots and getting more out of winning ones.

[Malifous]

over 4000 hands i win 9.86%. Ridiculously small sample size i know : P.