KQo Short Stacked vs 4xbb PFR, Push?

[Acein8ter]

Villain raises 4xbb with bb level at 500... I only have ~5600... Case for a push?

Seat 1: Hungrey Jack (7,045)
Seat 2: hayes22 (11,070)
Seat 3: 4PUNCHY4 (8,227)
Seat 4: Tkach 5 (7,224)
Seat 5: DrewB2 (10,216)
Seat 6: SofaKingLKY (9,978)
Seat 7: pop1time (2,680)
Seat 8: Hero (5,620)
Seat 9: blkkat1 (5,440)
blkkat1 posts the small blind of 500
Hungrey Jack posts the big blind of 1,000
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Kc Qd]
hayes22 folds
4PUNCHY4 folds
Tkach 5 folds
DrewB2 raises to 2,000
SofaKingLKY folds
pop1time folds
Hero???

[ssnyc]

I personally hate KQ but at least pokerstars usually rewards aggression with it...I think you push here this short

[Loxodonta]

Unless you've seen this guy open a large number of pots I wouldn't push here. I think it's an instacall for Villain i.e. no folding equity, and it's unlikely in my opinion that Hero is ahead. I think there's a good chance Villain has a medium pair and racing isn't so bad, being somewhat short-stacked, but compare that to folding this hand, then opening the next pot all-in where you have some folding equity.

[CobraGoat]

0 fold equity and this hand being dominated by most of villains range = no shove for me.

[homanga]

Your best case is a flip vs low pp (doesn't seem likely), or AT,AJ. The rest you are dominated, fold sir.

[sapsuckah]

My first instinct was to fold here because I loathe KQ, yadda yadda yadda. But this is read dependent IMO -- if this guy has been minraising a lot (and you have some clue that it doesn't necessarily mean strength), I think you actually do have some FE here and a push would often take it down preflop.

But without that read, I'd lay it down and wait for a spot to openpush.

[jhill3535]

Assuming 0 FE, the final pot will be 12,740 with only the initial raiser calling (One of the blinds calling is unlikely given stacks sizes IMO, but even if they do call or shove, you are getting better odds but against a stronger hand range which should pretty well cancel each other out). You need to win 44% of the time to breakeven. Against a standard range of 55+, A8s+, ATo+ you have 36% equity, and only 41.5% equity against a wide range of 22+,A2s+,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,A2o+,KQo.

And for arguments sake even if both your outs were live, as they would be if you give the initial raiser a range of JJ-22,AJs-A2s,AJo-A2o, you are only 42.5%.

It appears that a push is mildly -EV, but winning this hand would make you the chip leader at the table, and you may be able to make up that EV in future hands given the chip lead and more room to manuever/greater ablility to apply pressure. In other words this looks like it might be a decent spot to gamble.