NHL betting system -- Fading 3-game road trips

[DZgroundhog]

I read about this system somewhere else a little while ago; over the past two seasons it won 125 units and 132.05 units, respectively.

When a team starts a 3-game (or more) road trip, fade them on the money line. The goal is to win one unit for every 3-game road stretch.

Tonight, the Ducks and Habs start road trips. Bet 2.1 units on Detroit to beat Anaheim; bet 1.55 units on Carolina to beat Montreal. When a bet wins, that's the end of betting on that 3-game stretch. When a bet loses, it's time to Martingale to chase losses.

If a team is on a 4-game road trip and loses the first game, there is a still a 3-game road stretch available to bet.

Last year, this system went 137-5 (didn't bet when teams had nothing to play for at the end of the season). I went back and figured out the 2005-06 season and it went 246-11. I'm assuming the huge difference in betting opportunities is because there were a ton of 5 or 6 game road trips where a team dropped the first 2 games so there was an opportunity to win 3 units on a road trip.

There's obviously a chance that some garbage team will roll off 4 or 5 wins in a row on a road trip and break me....but do you guys think this is legit or just a lucky coincidence? I'd test it out using the 2003-04 season and further back, but it would get a little tricky trying to account for ties.

[Mr. Yuk]

[B00T]

ignoring the system merits for a minute...

Isnt this already the 3rd game of a road trip for the Ducks?

[MrFeelNothin]

Sounds flawless, I mean really what are the chances of losing 3 in a row? I don't actually know, but they must be low!!!!!!!


http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...ue#Post12040578

[MyTurn2Raise]

I martingaled pai gow and lost 10 times in a row once

lollerskates

[DZgroundhog]

I didn't invent this system; I just wanted to see if anybody thought it was a coincidence that it came out well ahead for the past two years. I'm well aware that some teams will win every game on a road trip.

I think there's some merit to it considering road trips are such a grind...as opposed to the NHL Under system which doesn't really explain why we should expect a game to go under during the road trip.

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
I martingaled pai gow and lost 10 times in a row once
lollerskates

[/ QUOTE ]

I lost 16x in a row at blackjack at Bally's, including 6 20s, [and also pushed 2 21s]. Even the dealer said I should just go to the bar and get hammered.

And that's when I was counting part-time, ugh, that left a mark on the old BR.

[MicroBob]

This system sounds awful.

The past results can be explained by the fact that you can go back and find any similar double-up type betting system that is going to have worked somewhere just by variance.

You can create 8-zillion crazy systems and ONE of them is sure to have been a proven winner over the fairly short-term of the past 5 years.

Mix around all sorts of weird doubling stuff for road teams on Wednesdays and Saturdays....then double-up with an Original Siz team vs. an expansion or recently moved team...then double-up again for any Canadian team playing on the road at any American team as long as they are in a different time-zone.

Somewhere in there I promise you I could devise a system that was a proven winner for an awesome win-rate even though almost all of that stuff obviously has nothing to do with the results.
Streaks and variance happen.

Sometimes a team will go the entire season unbeaten on Wednesdays for no special reason. They just happened to rock on Wednesdays but that doesn't mean you should bet the house the next Wedneesday.

[NajdorfDefense]

Andy Reid, 8-0 after bye weeks! LOCKX @ Jets next week.