Repost from BBV: Prop bet

[jtr]

I think possibly you made a mistake. It depends how many board cards are typically going out there. If the flop only gets dealt, it's about 60:40 your way, if we get to the turn it's close to 50:50, and if we get to the river it's about 40:60 against you. So in a loose passive game where hands that see a flop generally see a turn and a river as well, you could lose a lot of money with this bet.

My calculations assume that we have 44 "outs" out of 52 cards on the first card of the flop, 43 "outs" out of 51 cards on the second, etc.