#1
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How Big have to be CEV to compensate bubble situation
First example:
19 players left(18 got money,shortest stack 3k)Blinds 2400-1200 Im sitting in SB with 9k stack.I have ATo.BB has 50k... All fold to me,i push...BB call..im out.. Second example: 19 players left(18 got money)Blinds 2400-1200 My stack is 20k(average 25k,shortest 3k) Table chipleader(35k) pushes UTG+1 allinn Im sitting in CU and have JJ, call....out... Last money place apr 2 buy in. |
#2
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Re: How Big have to be CEV to compensate bubble situation
What do you know about the BB ?
Is he likely to call you down with atc's ? If you knew that he would call you with any two cards , then shoving with a-10 is not the best choice since you face a 38% chance of being ootm . Considering that you're almost three times more likely to finish in the money than the shortest stack , this means that if you fold , you only stand about a 25% chance of being ootm . So really this depends a lot on the propensity of the BB to call you . 2)This is a clear fold . |
#3
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Re: How Big have to be CEV to compensate bubble situation
As for your first example , I believe calling is superior to raising all in against a loose player. To balance this strategy , you have to be willing to limp with any cards that you normally would have raised with.
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#4
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Re: How Big have to be CEV to compensate bubble situation
Since I really liked your first example , I don't mind spending more time on it .
If the BB is following a perfect bubble theory approach , then he should be more tighter in his calling requirements . As they say , it takes a stronger hand to call a raise than to make one , it takes a MUCH stronger hand to call a raise/shove on the bubble than it would to make one yourself . So if your opponent is a good mtt player and handles the bubble well , then shoving becomes a better alternative than limping would . At the lower levels , you should be more inclined to limp with A-10 otb since many players don't know any better . At the higher levels , you should be more inclined to shove all in here . |
#5
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Re: How Big have to be CEV to compensate bubble situation
1)opponent had 88
2)Opponent had AQ I dont get why JJ call,is bad move?Usually noone shove with AA,KK even QQ they want to get action!Addition to that its shorthanded table and M is very Low.So i put my opponent smth 66-JJ,AJ,AQ,AK.So in bad case i have coinflip,better way i have overpair.PS.Opponent was quite agressive and he was table chipleader at that time. |
#6
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Re: How Big have to be CEV to compensate bubble situation
Occasionally you will see overcards like in this example , and from an ICM point of view , you shouldn't be calling even if you know you're ahead 55% of the time .As I said before , it takes a much stronger hand to call a raise when it's bubble time . On the other hand , you should open up your raising requirements when you're first in the pot towards the bubble . Just be careful that you don't get called liberally , otherwise you just compound your mistakes .
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#7
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Re: How Big have to be CEV to compensate bubble situation
Payouts would help but just estimating themish getting it in 62% favourite is a definitely a good thing here.
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#8
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Re: How Big have to be CEV to compensate bubble situation
I don't understand why the AT is a fold. As in all MTTs the money is at the FT. Doubling to ~20k gives us a good chance of making the FT and possibly going further. Getting it in at 68% seems worth while when we are giving up the 2 buy in 18th place prize and giving ourselves a chance at the ~50 buy in 1st place prize.
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