*** OFFICIAL 10/01/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE Pats @ Cincy)*** - Page 8

alwardc4 · #71 10-01-2007, 03:47 PM

I am leaning towards Nati at 7.5

The play I like most tonight is Brady u2.5 TDs (+110) on sportsbook. 2.5 TDs a game is 40 in a season. Even if Brady got to play at Cincy all 16 games, then I do not see him getting 40 TD passes. That would be something like the 6th best of all time. For my +110 u2.5 to be bad then Brady would have to average close to 2.8 TDs per game if this game were to be played over and over again. That would be close to 45 in a season. I know their offense is much improved, but geez louise.

CrushinFelt · #72 10-01-2007, 04:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Patriots -1 is the last leg of a 9 team teaser, let us gogogo

[/ QUOTE ]

fyp

go mfking pats

prad · #73 10-01-2007, 04:53 PM

I'm reading Michael Konik's book about sports betting and it's important to remember that even the square money and the sharp money are the same sometimes and that they crack the bookies every once in a while. He sites the Super Bowls in the 90's as games where the heavy public favorite went 7-1 from 1991 to 1998.

Another interesting stat I saw was that last year only 3 games went over 57. This seems as likely a game as ever to go over, but it still seems risky to take the over.

MNF is so hard to cap personally. If this was a sunday afternoon game I'd be all over the Pats.

Just my 2 cents. Can't remember the name of the book by Konik, since I don't have it with me right now, but its worth checking out. Basically a look inside one of the biggest and most successful sports betting syndicates. The casinos do their best to keep these guys away just as much as try and and keep card counters away.

NajdorfDefense · #74 10-01-2007, 05:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
with maybe the best coach in the history of the NFL,

[/ QUOTE ]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vince_Lombardi
5 Titles in 9 years. 9-1 Postseason record. 1 Loss in NFL Title game at Philly. 105-35-6 record.

Versus 111-81-1, 3 titles in 12 years, and 3 Postseason losses.

It's not close.

Other candidates:
George Halas - 6 titles, 324 wins.
Don Shula - 3 titles, 347 wins.
Bill Walsh - 3 titles, 102-63-1, should get credit for 1989 SB Champs as well since all Seifert did was turn on the bus.

MicroBob · #75 10-01-2007, 05:45 PM

I'm on Bengals +9, -115 at Bodog and also on the moneyline.

And I must be a super-square because I'm really liking the over also.

21SuicideKing21 · #76 10-01-2007, 05:46 PM

I'm leaning toward Cinci +7 @ home. Granted they are without Rudi, who in my opinion is not that good, and I think is a bit overrated. But the thing I like about this game is, is the fact that it's a MNF game in Cinci, its going to be windy and cold, and its going to be LOUD. Go back to Week 1, where Cinci played at home against BAL on MNF, and their defense looked good, granted it was against the Ravens but something to think about.

I might just drop this and go with the Patriots because of reasons posted earlier.

rush66 · #77 10-01-2007, 05:52 PM

Ok.

Thread summary.

The Bengals and Under are the sharp plays (At 7 or above and 54 and above). Most know it and are betting it to "fit the sharp mold" or are saying, "f.uck it, the sharps lose tonight" and taking the bengals. Everyone chimes in with their opinion.

I myself am going to bet this live?

FakeKramer · #78 10-01-2007, 06:08 PM

Bengals first half +4.5 at +100.... back up the truck.

RikkiDee · #79 10-01-2007, 06:35 PM

This might be a BSP thing to say, but I think the BSP phenomenon doesn't necessarily apply to NE here.

I think the reason BSP works is due to the parity in the NFL allowing every team to have a reasonable chance. However, NE, from the evidence that we have (not just this year either) has shown to be in a class of their own.

I really think anyone on Cinci tonight is seriously underestimating how much NE has improved from last season. Not to mention they were a 3rd quarter collapse away from another superbowl appearance last year vs a stacked indy team.

MicroBob · #80 10-01-2007, 06:56 PM

I agree that some may be underestimating how freaking good NE is now. But 9 pts on the road into a really hostile environment is an awful lot.
NE definitely has the ability to overcome that and just run away with a 37-10 win or something.
My feeling is that CIN is slightly undervalued following their disaster at CLE.
They have the ability to be great or awful on any given week. Against NE on a Monday Night I'll guess their motivation is sky-high and like their chances of at least keeping the score respectable.