25NL: JJ OOP facing river overbet

RapidEvolution · #1 10-01-2007, 10:30 AM

Villain is 44/1/3 over 85 hands

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($8.10)
UTG+1 ($26.60)
MP1 ($22.75)
MP2 ($29.30)
Hero ($25.50)
CO ($28.05)
Button ($16.75)
SB ($23.90)
BB ($15)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises to $1, 1 fold, Button calls $1, 2 folds.

Flop: ($2.35) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $1.5, Button calls $1.50.

This flop seemed like a good one for cbetting out...wasn't thrilled about getting called, but he might have TP or something wacky like that.

Turn: ($5.35) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

I really want to see what villain does with 3 connectors on the board and exercise some pot control.

River: ($5.35) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $5.25, Hero?

VIllain bets the king for just over the pot. I was prepared to call 1/2 the pot with no problem...but a PSB?
Do my turn and river checks basically give him license to bet river on ATC? What range would you put him on? Thanks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Flups · #2 10-01-2007, 11:22 AM

If you plan to call 1/2 PSB, maybe it's better to bet it yourself OOP instead of c/c'ing the river. If he raises you, then you have a much easier decision. And you might get some value out of weaker 1-pairs.

As played I think I would fold. There aren't many 'busted draws' he could be bluffing with, and a weak pair most likely would want to see a cheap showdown. A 44 VPIP could easily have some kind of 2-pair, str8 or K-something to beat you.

seki · #3 10-01-2007, 11:52 AM

This is definitely a b/f situation. You'll get a lot of worse hands calling you, especially from a laggy player like this. With a VPIP of 40 and AF of 3, he's going to bet you out of any pot. That said, I'm surprised he didn't try on the turn. Sometimes this will mean a made hand trying to get a river call. As played, I'd fold it and wait for him to try and bluff me off a made hand.

Panthro · #4 10-01-2007, 12:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Villain is 44/1/3 over 85 hands

[/ QUOTE ]

bet more on the flop and bet the turn.

RapidEvolution · #5 10-01-2007, 01:11 PM

I tend to be wary about flops like these when loose players call both the pfr and the flop bet. My thinking tends to be that if their VPIP is that high, their range is wider and it's more likely that they hit the flop as opposed to a 12/5. Is this the wrong way to be thinking about it?

Flups · #6 10-01-2007, 01:19 PM

In my experience they indeed are likely to hit flops like these, but they have to hit it really hard to beat your overpair. It is more likely they hit somekind of 1-pair (KT, AT, QT, whatever) and you can extract 3 streets from those if the board doesn't get messy.. If he raises a turnbet, then you can still fold.

RapidEvolution · #7 10-01-2007, 01:22 PM

*nods* This makes sense and I need to stop seeing monsters everywhere (though admittedly with JJ it can get hairy). He showed down AQo and was bluffing me off the pot...he probably would've folded to a river bet.

warrantofice · #8 10-01-2007, 01:24 PM

I can't even read other peoples advise here....well perhaps some anways.
Raise the [censored] out of this flop. what the [censored] did you want to come (other than a jack obv) you got no over cards be extremely happy!!! Raise pot, raise slightly more than pot overcards can come...you have not won yet...try to win on the flop...look turn car..another beauty..its lower than your jacks...raise more. try to win here to. raise pot. raise close to pot. raise more than pot. river. well your committed..if he called you down with AK , play with him for the rest of your life and be a happy man...

RapidEvolution · #9 10-01-2007, 01:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I can't even read other peoples advise here....well perhaps some anways.
Raise the [censored] out of this flop. what the [censored] did you want to come (other than a jack obv) you got no over cards be extremely happy!!! Raise pot, raise slightly more than pot overcards can come...you have not won yet...try to win on the flop...look turn car..another beauty..its lower than your jacks...raise more. try to win here to. raise pot. raise close to pot. raise more than pot. river. well your committed..if he called you down with AK , play with him for the rest of your life and be a happy man...

[/ QUOTE ]

so I should be trying to stack off with JJ on this board?
Agreed, a pot sized bet on the flop may have been better, but once he calls it, what am I beating that calls? TT maybe? If I replayed the hand, I'd bet pot on flop, c/c turn, and b/f river... I think that's the best line here.

warrantofice · #10 10-01-2007, 01:43 PM

Megs negs on that line. You got a saweet board. And he's the button, so could be a pretty broad range especially at the 25nl. And no, I didn't say you wanna insta stack off here, what i do mean is that you want to encourage villian to fold. There are lots and lots of hands he could call with preflop and think of all those Suited Connectors that atleast made a pair on this flop. You really think your going to be pushing them out with your bet? Nope you got bet like you gotta hand, cause you do, but its really vunerable so bet and protect it. And yes. he could call you with A10,k10,q10,j10,910,54,64,65 ect... oh and look. Maybe even two over cards thinking you missed the flop