*** OFFICIAL 10/01/07 NFL MNF GAME THREAD (NE Pats @ Cincy)***

[zOrO2k6]

NE Pats start at -7, then -7.5, back to -7, now betet n 5dimes have it at -9 wtf? "Book: Bet the Underdog please!" ?

[kdog]

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Yea, that's the thing, as someone who follows the Bengals very closely, they coulda EASILY won 10 or 11 games last year. They woulda been in the playoffs if they hit an EXTRA POINT for crying out loud!



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If they were truly a good team their playoff fate would have never come down to that missed XP. They have a flashy offense which catches peoples attention but really not much else. In fact after their 3-0 start last year they are 6-10. That's mediocre(at best).

[zOrO2k6]

now im worried about my 3 team parlay including Bengals +7.5, its +9 now in some books.

[prodonkey]

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NE Pats start at -7, then -7.5, back to -7, now betet n 5dimes have it at -9 wtf? "Book: Bet the Underdog please!" ?

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The line should probably be about 10.. if they move it from 7 to 10 though they are gonna get murdered if they get middled. I want to unload on the pats, but I can't get any damn money online [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Vagos]

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Their offense is good with a strong passing game and mediocre running game, and their defense is horrible.

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Since when does having a RB who has rushed for over 4200 yards with 36 TD's in the last 3 years qualify as "mediocre"? Rudi has been in the top 10 in rushing yards for the past 3 years. Only LaDainian Tomlinson and Tiki Barber can claim the same. It's certainly not a mediocre rushing game.

[Vagos]

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At what point do the Patriots become a BSP pick?

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Pretty sure it already has.

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It's funny cause it seems like the BSP each week has been for the Pats opponent. At least, I certainly remember a lot of people on this board(and in general) being all over Bills +17. I bet and won on Pats -17. And it seemed Chargers +3.5 was a trendy pick while I cleaned up on Pats -3.5 The fact that everyone is now on the Pats in this game makes weary as a bettor and makes me feel good as a Bengals fan [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[psuasskicker]

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Their offense is good with a strong passing game and mediocre running game, and their defense is horrible.

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Since when does having a RB who has rushed for over 4200 yards with 36 TD's in the last 3 years qualify as "mediocre"? Rudi has been in the top 10 in rushing yards for the past 3 years. Only LaDainian Tomlinson and Tiki Barber can claim the same. It's certainly not a mediocre rushing game.

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Last year counts for nothing this year.

Cinci NFL rank:
Rush YPG - 20th
Rush YPC - 24th
Att/game - 19th
For 1st down - 23rd

Rudi NFL Rank:
Yards - 23rd
YPC (>30 car) - 31st
Att - 12th

They've lost OL, backup RB, and WR depth. This isn't the same rushing attack as the last couple years. These stats are pretty much the definition of the word "mediocre", and that might be generous (only right now...I think their rushing game is better than its stats right now).

- C -

[Alzee]

I will be very surprised if NE doesn't easily cover in this game. BSP logic or not, I see Maroney having no problem moving the ball and helping NE setup play action beauty against a horrible CIN pass coverage secondary. I'm on NE for 3u so hopefully im not missing something. I laid off of NE last week because I thought their March of Redemption from spygate had to wear off sooner or later, but sooner or later one has to realize that they really are that good. The final deciding factor was the fact that CIN just hasn't looked good this year, period.

They have awesome offensive talent (obvious) but hopefully this won't be the game they fall into sync and their D shows up. I am leaning toward the under pretty hard atm, but not sure yet.

[BingoBango]

What do you guys think about the o/u? its around 52.5 - 53.5 now. Top offenses obviously but New England actually has the least yards allowed per game so far (Cin is 30th) but they've played the Jets, Bills, Chargers. They allowed 14, 7, 14 respectively.

[27offsuit]

# Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
# Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
# Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
# Patriots are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
# Patriots are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road favorite.
# Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.
# Patriots are 22-5-1 ATS in their last 28 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
# Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
# Patriots are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.


conversely...


# Bengals are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
# Bengals are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
# Bengals are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 4.
# Bengals are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October.




Notice NE wasn't in natedogg's BSP post this week.

There is a reason for that...

Prediction: NE 38 Cin 16