Pushing with and against a big draw.

[1tripz1]

Here is a mockup hand, sorry if theres something abit off..

NL 0.10/0.25

Hero $25
Button $25

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, Button calls $1, 2 folds.

Flop: ($2.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $2, Button raises to $6...

If the button has a draw here, whats the arguements against pushing the flop or calling and pushing a blank turn? I understand we have more equity if the turn blanks, but id rather get it in while we are ahead.

Also lets say we are the villain with J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], again are we trying to get it in on the flop or should we play it more passivley?

I understand the concepts of pot odds and outs etc... but alot of the people who analyse the hands in these forums seem to go alot deeper, so just wondering on some general thoughts.

[AaronBrown]

There's a dime missing in the pot, but I'll ignore that.

Button has both a flush and inside straight draw, making this close to an even situation (A's have 53% equity). 12 of the 45 possible turn cards will give button a sure win, if none of these come up, A's equity rises to 72% (that's the average, it depends a bit on the card).

If A's push, button should call. 47% of the time A's lose $22, 53% A's win $26.25, a $3.64 EV. If button folds, AA collects $10.25, but that's very unlikely.

If A's call, there's $14.25 in the pot and $18 in each stack. If the turn card is a spade or 9, A's should fold. That happens 12/45 = 27% of the time, and A's lose $4. If the turn card is anything else, A's should push. With these stacks, button would have to bet $18 in hopes of winning $32.25, which requires a 36% chance of winning. She only has 28%, so she should fold, and A's win $10.25. A's do better if button calls this bet. 27% chance of losing $4 and 73% chance of winning $10.25 has an EV of $6.45, so calling is better.

Reversing the logic, button should push on the flop.

Of course, in real poker, you don't know both hands. In this situation A's are afraid of a straight or flush draw or a set. Betting the pot on the flop makes it about zero EV for most draws to call. You never want to bet less than that (except for deception), you want to bet enough more to take advantage of optimistic players; without sacrificing too much against sets.

Button is in a nice situation. She's not afraid of anything except a suited hand in spades with an A, K or Q; and that will make the flush unlikely, so it doesn't cost too much money. The hand is likely close enough to 50% equity that she can bet big or small without worrying about EV. Therefore, she will play for maximum deception, and try to look like AJ or QQ trying to force out draws. That way she could induce a fold if she misses her draw, and a call or bluff raise if she hits it.