How risky is this? (BR related)

[Wesker1982]

I am thinking about playing $1/2 NL and $1-5 spread limit live. The thing is, I only have about $1k for a bankroll. I have been playing around my area over the last 2.5 years and have profited roughly around $3k playing casually, but it was all with no bankroll management. I used most of the $3k for living expenses but I left behind about $600 that I built up to $1k for a BR.

For the last few months I have been using strict bankroll management online but I feel I am a MUCH better live player. The play around here is extra loose and soft, easily beatable. I know I am under bankrolled though.

I figure a couple wins and I will be close to properly bankrolled, but a couple of losses would break me.

I have never ran into anyone around here who knows how to play, people are overly tight or way too loose. I know I can beat the games, I have before. But without a proper BR I'm not sure if it matters...

So my question is: What do you guys think my odds are of going broke?

P.S. This post probably makes me sound like a desperado but I'm tight aggressive with good money management(for now).

[CHUCKLES]

i think going broke is easly posible. But then its only $600. if u cant aford to lose it dont play with it.

[Paxinor]

if you cannot step down you need a bigger bankroll even if the people are very very bad... even if they play random and with no strategy a 5 buy in downswing is pretty common and there is quite a big chance that you will go broke...

[Rek]

Always play within good BR. Continue online until you have the right BR to play the games. If you can build it online you should then murder soft live games.

You know what is right so I don't see the point of the post. Responsible answers will be play within BR. However, if you like gambling, you don't mind the risk and losing your roll is no big deal then go for it. Your choice.

[pzhon]

Many people seem to think having 20 buy-ins was one of the Ten Commandments, rather than a guess that is wrong most of the time. The result is that they may be too conservative in microstakes games, and too aggressive in higher stakes games and tournaments. They don't check whether they are winning players before jumping into a game, or before telling someone else to play. When they are faced with a 10 buy-in downswing in a soft game, they thank their bankroll management for providing an adequate cushion instead of realizing that this is strong evidence they need to work on their game.

By the way, people do the same with 300 BB, but 300 BB is much more aggressive than 20 buy-ins is for most winning players.

Instead of applying a fixed number out of context, you can use bankroll = comfort * SD^2 / WR, which applies to a wide variety of advantage gambles. I don't want to go into the details again, but you can look at this post for some of them. The point is that your required bankroll for a given level of safety depends on your win rate. In a very soft game, as the lowest stakes NL games available always are, you don't need as many buy-ins because your win rate will be much higher. Doubling your win rate decreases your bankroll requirements by a factor of 2.

In your specific situation, you have recognized the games as particularly soft. Playing with 5 buy-ins may be reasonable. If only the NL games look appetizing, I recommend that you take a shot, but set a stop-loss (say $400) that will allow you to rebuild from online microstakes play with the remainder. You might be quite safe in the spread limit game with a bit less, but it depends on your skills, the level of play, and the rake.

[kekedarius]

I play NL400 with occasional NL600 shots on a $30k+ roll (and still growing). Your risk of ruin is going to be absolutely enormous (probably 90%+).

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
I play NL400 with occasional NL600 shots on a $30k+ roll (and still growing). Your risk of ruin is going to be absolutely enormous (probably 90%+).

[/ QUOTE ]
Why do you disagree with the risk of ruin formulas and calculators? Would you care to wager a large amount of money giving 9:1 odds on whether someone will bust out in a soft game with 5 buy-ins? With 2 buy-ins?

That you are over 90% convinced it is something you would not do is very different from saying there is over a 90% probability that there will be a bad outcome. I think you are confusing the two. You should at least acknowledge that a live game game with a $2 big blind is a lot closer to online NL $5 than online NL $400.

Risk of ruin (staying in the same game without withdrawing) is roughly e^-(2*comfort) ~ 1/7^comfort, where comfort is bankroll * win rate / (standard deviation^2). The risk of ruin is about 2% with a comfort level of 2, which I called aggressive, and about 1/3000 with a comfort level of 4, which I called conservative. This is off by a little due to short stack considerations, but not by much.

An expert with 5 buy-ins in a very soft game may still have a comfort level over 2. That would mean a risk of ruin under 2%, not over 90%. That doesn't mean it is a good idea for the OP, who might have won without being an expert, but don't overstate the danger.

[Wesker1982]

Thanks for the replies,

You make a good point about the level of play. The only reason I am considering this is because the NL and limit games are as soft, probably even softer, than the .5/.10 NL and .25/.50 limit online.

I know I asked for opinions, but a 90% chance of failure sounds completely unreasonable. I only need to have a couple of good nights before I have a proper roll (about $2k).

As for me not minding risks or losing my BR, I don't like big risks and losing my bankroll would be real bad, I would probably have to get a job (I run a poker table but its not doing to well, extra income comes from poker). I have actually been living off of the $3k for quite a while now, anytime I needed money I just played, but with that habit I never had a chance to build a BR because I was spending it. My goal now is to take the $1k and turn it into a decent BR, but I'm not sure if I should grind out online or play out of my BR live where I have a bigger edge.

[The 13th 4postle]

you should have a job period or make sure your table gets a lot more popular soon. I would have recommended playing even with the small bankroll but, you value that money way too much. I do the same thing all the time and I always go broke. Get a job first then play the tables without worry. Or play online 24/7 your choice.

[eof]

I don't know what these guys are talking about. GO FOR IT. You have 5 buy ins.. play tight and stack-a-donk. If you can buy in for 50bb do it. I say take a 4 buy in shot.. you can grind online if you have to or just get a job for a week. 90% chance of losing 5 buy ins when you are VERY +EV is a joke. You could run bad its true, but you only live once. If it were your last 1k ever i'd say you were crazy, but if you can get a job and save 500 or something for poker in a month then you're CRAZY to not take that shot.