AJo on paired flop....

ttttt · #1 03-14-2006, 10:12 AM

Unsure of what to do on the Turn here.

Villain 53/12/1.0 36/50

Cryptologic 2.00/4.00 Hold'em (6 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 4 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (5.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 5.25 BB.

sharpie · #2 03-14-2006, 10:19 AM

Looks good. These types usually peel when they shouldn't, especially on paired boards.

dustyn · #3 03-14-2006, 10:45 AM

Betting the turn is good for value. I think this is well played on turn and river.

MrHoobris · #4 03-14-2006, 11:06 AM

Looks good.

An alternative line you can mix in is to check behind on the turn and pick off a bluff on the river, especially if you've seen villain get aggressive on the big streets before or try and run some bluffs. Just make sure you don't get too down on yourself if he spikes a pair. The pot is small and giving him a free-shot at his likely 6-outer is not that big a deal if it saves you from getting bluffed out.

If he checks again on the river, you can value bet your big ace and he might payoff with a smaller Ahi or Qhi if he's really bad.

pete3145 · #5 03-14-2006, 11:16 AM

I would have checked it, He seems loose enough to call with any pair.

MrWookie · #6 03-14-2006, 11:32 AM

Bootiful.

K-mac · #7 03-14-2006, 11:47 AM

Can everyone explain to me why betting A high here is great?
Is it MUBS to worry that he is calling down here with a low PP or a 3 in his hand?
Is his range of hands so great that we are well ahead of most of them on average (coupled with the fact that he is just check/calling) that we are finding value with A high?

MrHoobris · #8 03-14-2006, 12:16 PM

I was surprised to see that we are now pretty significant dogs to villain's range. Say villain defends 80% of hands, and then continues with the 5/8 of them, meaning he has overall range consists of the top 50% of hands in this situation.

Board: Kh Kc 3d 6d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 41.3402 % 38.85% 02.49% { AcJd }
Hand 2: 58.6598 % 56.17% 02.49% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q9s+, Q4s-Q3s, J9s+, J3s, T7s+, T3s, 97s+, 93s, 87s, 83s, 76s, 73s, 65s, 63s, 53s+, 43s, 32s, A2o+, K2o+, QTo+, JTo, T9o, 76o, 65o, 53o+, 43o, 32o }

We no longer have an equity advantage in this situation. And if villain is passive he might not even value bet a pair of 3s or other small pair, which is big plus for us. He could also now c/r semibluff a flush draw or another small pair, costing us our free shot at a 6-outer.

One reason is that if we start checking behind this turn every time, it will now become close to optimal for villain to peel every flop, which sucks too. One redeeming point is if villain now incorrectly bluffs all his non-showdownable hands now, we can profit greatly.

Overall, I would say this indicates checking behind is the right play most of the time, since we no longer have value with Ahi... Thoughts?

yourface · #9 03-14-2006, 12:56 PM

looks good to me on all streets, nh.

checking the turn and calling a river bet is OK too if villain likes to bluff.

krishan · #10 03-14-2006, 01:02 PM

You should all be betting this turn 98% of the time.

Krishan