Iggy's Week 5 NCAA Picks

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So now that my card's pretty much finalized (shouldn't have any more bets except halftimes), here's what I'm on this week in one convenient post:

POTW: West Virginia at South Florida +7 (Risk 3.15u to win 3u)
Air Force +2.5 at Navy (Risk 2u to win 2.04u)
Mississippi State +13.5 at South Carolina (Risk 1.03u to win 1u)
Michigan State +7.5 at Wisconsin (Risk 1u to win 0.99u)
Ohio State -23.5 at Minnesota (Risk 1.07u to win 1u)
West Virginia at USF +4 (Risk 1.15u to win 1u)
Ohio State -13.5 at Minnesota (Risk 1.1u to win 1u)

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You missed AF +3 and Mississippi State +14. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[MyTurn2Raise]

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Looks like it's gonna be hookers and blow on Iggy! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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[bills217]

Bad, bad throw there. Game-killer...

...but a SF +6/U27.5-maker! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[iggymcfly]

Well, I'm going to Vegas on Sunday so maybe it really should be hookers and blow time. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Anyway, really happy about the way the game went tonight as I was confident the line was way off and it was. Tons of value on the Bulls. Finished 2-0 ATS, 1-0 ML on the night for a net of 6.64 units. (Initially forgot to take out commission when I posted ML.) Excellent start to the weekend.

[Austiger]

The ML was the play. Nice one iggy.

[prad]

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I honestly have no idea what's going to happen in the NCSt/Lou game. I was thinking at first that the public might be overreacting, but then I looked at the Sagarin ratings, and they said the line should only be 1.5 so I threw that out. Really can't pick a side there at all.

Also, I don't think Ohio State's undervalued as much as I think Minnesota's overvalued. They're coming off a bowl season where they benefited from a +18 turnover margin, and they haven't really played any high-profile games yet for people to realize how bad they are. I think they're the second-worst team in the conference behind Northwestern.

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I think Minnesota may even be worse than Northwestern. But 23.5 points is a lot on the road for a young Ohio State team. I don't think Minnesota puts up more than 10 points but I'm unsure how Ohio State's Offense will perform in a hostile environment. I am leaning on Ohio State here, but not strongly. Michigan seems like better value going into Northwestern to me.

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Not sure I would classify Minn as a hostile environment. I agree Mich is probably a better bet to road cover.

[iggymcfly]

On Michigan, I'm staying away mainly because of the letdown factor after the big win over Penn State. Those lines that look way too low in a look-ahead or let-down situation tend to be trap lines more often than not. Also, as a defensive team that's shown little offensive punch all season, Michigan will have more difficulty covering a fairly high number. I will say that Michigan should be less likely to let down than an average team though after how they got embarrassed by Appalachian State. If Lloyd Carr can't use that to convince his team to practice hard and come out prepared, he should be fired on the spot. Sagarin has Michigan favored by 10.5 FWIW.

[TJL]

I asked this also in the 9/29 thread...

If you had to bet the house on either:
Oklahoma - 22 or
Cal/Oregon over 72

which one would you pick.
I need some advice here

TJL

[iggymcfly]

Can I choose "neither"? Oklahoma's in the exact same situation I described in the post above, playing a road game against a mediocre team the week before the biggest game of the season. It's a textbook look-ahead game and the Sooners could easily come up with a stinker en route to a narrow victory.

Meanwhile, Oregon/Cal is the national showcase game this week and everyone knows how good the offenses are. It's been hyped up on every college football preview show on television. Whatever the "fair line" is for this one, the squares should be pushing it a little higher. The only time you want to bet the over in a showcase that's supposed to be a shootout like that is if there's something about the pace that will throw people off (like the Lou/BSU Liberty Bowl a couple years back where they were throwing on every down), and if you do that, you need to get on it early.

I guess out of those two, if I actually had to pick one, I'd take the Cal/Oregon over since the teams are really evenly matched, and in my official prediction, I had the over covering in triple overtime, but if it stays in regulation, I think you're going to have a hard time. If I was going to bet the house on one game tomorrow, I'd take Air Force at +2.5.

[TJL]

Didnt BYU beat Air Force?

Why is Air force such a strong play for you?

Thanks for the input

TJL