Weird river spot bottom boat stars 100k

[MaverickUSC]

It's crazy how running bad skews your judgement. I was convinced that he is calling with me beat way more than 50% of the time and was going to show up with A8.

Actually, though... I feel like one of my big leaks has been making dumb big bets on the end when I think I am good/should be good but am not going to get value from a worse enough hand enough of the time to merit shoving or whatever. Is my thinking skewed by being shown the nuts so many times on the river in spots like this lately? What might I be missing in my reads in these situations? Combination of both?

Like in this situation, how are we getting to the decision to shove there being correct considering ranges, unknowns tendencies to do stupid things, etc.

Devo