Turn fold with QQ

AshleyC · #1 09-28-2007, 09:02 PM

The reason for the 'slowplay' pre flop was that the button was playing at 78/42 and shoving most flops, with any pair, sometimes no pair /draw. He had previously shoved an AK2J board on the turn with 23o and there was this beauty:

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button ($149.05)
Hero ($100)
BB ($174.90)
UTG ($74.30)
MP ($49.40)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $3.5, MP raises to $12, 3 folds, UTG calls $8.50.

Flop: ($25.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets $1, MP calls $1.

Turn: ($27.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets $27.5, MP calls $27.50.

River: ($82.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets $33.8 (All-In), MP calls $8.90 (All-In).

Final Pot: $125.20

UTG has 7c Ks (one pair, twos).
MP has Ac Kc (one pair, twos).
Outcome: MP wins $100.30. UTG wins $24.90.

Therefore, I expect him to re-raise pre-flop so that I can shove; or if he calls to go crazy on a safe board for my hand, so elect to just call the initial raise from UTG who was 18/11/3 and who I'd expect to fold a midpair / AT type hand to any re-raise pre-flop but likely overplay such a hand post flop if I just flat called due to the presence of the maniac in the hand.

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

UTG ($103)
Hero ($100)
CO ($157.55)
Button ($25.35)
SB ($45.90)
BB ($119)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $4, Hero calls $4, 1 fold, Button calls $4, 2 folds.

Flop: ($13.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets $8, Hero calls $8, Button raises to $21.35 (All-In), UTG calls $13.35, Hero calls $13.35.

Turn: ($77.55) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players, 1 all-in)
UTG bets $70, Hero folds.

River: ($147.55) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $147.55

loveinvain · #2 09-28-2007, 09:10 PM

I don't understand this at all. Based on your reads, everything went according to plan until UTG called maniac's push and you ... why not push at that point?

And then the turn, why fold the turn?

WTF?

Jonezycat · #3 09-28-2007, 09:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
so elect to just call the initial raise from UTG who was 18/11/3 and who I'd expect to fold a midpair / AT type hand to any re-raise pre-flop but likely overplay such a hand post flop if I just flat called due to the presence of the maniac in the hand

[/ QUOTE ]

This was your plan, so why did you chicken out? Your hand is so underrepped here and looks like a draw. I think I'd shove turn, but don't know how much I'd like it.

AshleyC · #4 09-28-2007, 09:19 PM

The large turn bet scares me. Maniac is all in at this point, he knows his hand is being showndown and therfore has less incentive to bluff. Moreover, he should feel safer checking down AJ type hands as he knows that I too am less likely to bluff given that my hand will be shown down. With this is mind the turn bet suggests a very big hand.

But that is why I posted this hand, as I was worried that it may be too weak of a fold?

Jonezycat · #5 09-28-2007, 09:23 PM

I'd be more understandable if you raised PF and then called on the flop. But as played why would villian check AJ to what looks like a draw and give you a freecard?

sightless · #6 09-28-2007, 11:04 PM

just get it all in on the flop

orange · #7 09-28-2007, 11:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
just get it all in on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

centgas · #8 09-29-2007, 12:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
just get it all in on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Often people are far too keen to let villain commit more to do that, especially with position.

AshleyC · #9 09-29-2007, 08:09 AM

Villan is 18/11, has raised UTG and made two large bets in a spot where he simply is not bluffing, therefore, if his range is

Im effectively getting (77.55+ 74.65): 74.65 ~ 2:1 here, so need to have 33% equity.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

21,780 games 0.005 secs 4,356,000 games/sec

Board: 8s Jc 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 77.500% 75.33% 02.17% 16407 472.50 { JJ+, 88, AJs }
Hand 1: 22.500% 20.33% 02.17% 4428 472.50 { QhQs }

---

30,690 games 0.005 secs 6,138,000 games/sec

Board: 8s Jc 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.761% 59.22% 01.54% 18175 472.50 { JJ+, 88, AJs, AJo }
Hand 1: 39.239% 37.70% 01.54% 11570 472.50 { QhQs }

---

33,660 games 0.031 secs 1,085,806 games/sec

Board: 8s Jc 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.931% 56.53% 01.40% 19027 472.50 { JJ+, 88, AJs, KJs, AJo }
Hand 1: 42.069% 40.67% 01.40% 13688 472.50 { QhQs }

---

I've got enough equity here against his range if it includes AJo, as well as AJs. If his range does not include AJo then it is a fold. I think it's a closer decison than people are making out given his stats, and the fact that he raised UTG. Given also that maniac can turn up with a hand, if we include his equity in the pot then I think that folding is correct. As played I folded and he had a set of 8s. Maniac had J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]