NL100 , JJ faces reraise on flop

[solids]

Ugh. I fold this all day, and it's probably not close. Two reasons, based on stats:

First, a villain with a 6% pfr typically has AA, KK, QQ, or AK. He isn't raising you with AK.

Second, his post-flop aggro is relatively small. If he had a higher AF, I might play for stacks here.

[Stonewalled]

[ QUOTE ]
Ugh. I fold this all day, and it's probably not close. Two reasons, based on stats:

First, a villain with a 6% pfr typically has AA, KK, QQ, or AK. He isn't raising you with AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but Villain didn't raise. He coldcalled.

[nazahl]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming a range of 33+, AcJc+, KcQc, 8c6c, 6s4s, Hero's equity is about 47%, making this a clear push with 1/3 of Hero's stack already in the pot.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think this range is off a bit.

the coldcall in the bb is usually something like:

AQs+ and pairs 88+

at least for someone w/ those stats, I could be way off though.

[Stonewalled]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Assuming a range of 33+, AcJc+, KcQc, 8c6c, 6s4s, Hero's equity is about 47%, making this a clear push with 1/3 of Hero's stack already in the pot.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think this range is off a bit.

the coldcall in the bb is usually something like:

AQs+ and pairs 88+

at least for someone w/ those stats, I could be way off though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Too tight imo b/c sets are not included, but assuming you're right a push would still be correct:

---
38,610 games 0.005 secs 7,722,000 games/sec

Board: 7d 5c 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.545% 48.72% 01.83% 18809 706.50 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 49.455% 47.62% 01.83% 18388 706.50 { 88+, AcKc, AcQc }


---

[solids]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ugh. I fold this all day, and it's probably not close. Two reasons, based on stats:

First, a villain with a 6% pfr typically has AA, KK, QQ, or AK. He isn't raising you with AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but Villain didn't raise. He coldcalled.

[/ QUOTE ]

I meant he raised on the flop. He doesn't do this with A high.

[Stonewalled]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ugh. I fold this all day, and it's probably not close. Two reasons, based on stats:

First, a villain with a 6% pfr typically has AA, KK, QQ, or AK. He isn't raising you with AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but Villain didn't raise. He coldcalled.

[/ QUOTE ]

I meant he raised on the flop. He doesn't do this with A high.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand now.

Preflop, the fact that he only raises 6% doesn't mean that he's cold-calling with a tight range -- also, he's playing 23% of his hands, so we can't say he's a rock by any stretch. It would not surprise me at all to see a 23% VPIP, even with a low pfr%, coldcall with some variety of hands, including many pocket pairs. Also, I think this guy is usually 4-betting AA-KK, so I don't think that's an enormous part of his range.

Regarding his aggression factor, yes it's a little low, but he is playing 23% of his hands, and 1.5 AF doesn't make him a calling station.

Finally, Villain's 35% wsd is high, indicating he probably overvalues the strength of his hands fairly often.

So, IMO his range is somewhat wider than QQ+, AK.

[solids]

^^^
Valid points, and in turn, they make this closer. I still think it's a fold here. With a 6% pf raise stat, it's hard to believe villain opens with too many medium pocket pairs.

[critikal]

[ QUOTE ]
^^^
Valid points, and in turn, they make this closer. I still think it's a fold here. With a 6% pf raise stat, it's hard to believe villain opens with too many medium pocket pairs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain didn't open, he cold called. Since he only raises ~7% pf, I'd think that he's looking to get it in pf with AA-QQ and with other hands he's trying to play a cheap flop. This would make AA-QQ less likely for his range here. I think we're looking at either a set, or 88-TT a ton.

[Keystoned]

[ QUOTE ]

Villain didn't open, he cold called. Since he only raises ~7% pf, I'd think that he's looking to get it in pf with AA-QQ and with other hands he's trying to play a cheap flop. This would make AA-QQ less likely for his range here. I think we're looking at either a set, or 88-TT a ton.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bam. This is exactly what I think. I really expect to see TT here, maybe 99, or a set.