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#11
09-28-2007, 12:10 PM
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Re: ez river fold with flush? 25/50/100 Live game
I thinks this is an easy call. You clearly stated in the OP that he thinks you're a bit of a station, so his value-shoving range is large and he's already shown he's willing to throw a ton of chips in against you on a bluff, so how can you possibly fold?
Plus, your hand looks far more like a pair with a big heart than it does a made flush on the turn. 
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#12
09-28-2007, 12:41 PM
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Re: ez river fold with flush? 25/50/100 Live game
As played I call, not happy about it but with the given description folding seems bad.
I actually do like a turn shove more than a call. With the current action and assuming that villain covers you, the pot is approx. 16,550$ while you only have 24,100$ left. If he has a set by only calling the turn you put yourself in a bad spot, if he hits you have a dilemma and might fold (unsure if he had you or was value betting thin with the lower flush or even bluffed you). Another flushcard might kill the action (giving him a better flush or killin your action cuz his small flush isn't worth a dime anymore, plus he might bluff you off your hand). Calling can put you in a tough spot there. If you shove the turn worse flushs will call most of the time, sets barely can fold (getting 2:1) and you give him the opportunity to make a hero call if he has a uber read on you plus the hand plays a lot easier which is quite helpfull in these spots... I don't know about your image but if you are known to be a little steamy after losing pots or ppl think you can make huge bluffs/overplay hands then shoving the turn is mandatory.
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#14
09-28-2007, 02:02 PM
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Re: ez river fold with flush? 25/50/100 Live game
[ QUOTE ]
I dunno if he'd play a set like this but he certainly would with a lower flush, and given the description I could see it being a bluff too. I don't think it's a no-brainer call but I can't see myself folding. [/ QUOTE ] I don't beat any flushes. Of the combos of flushes I'm losing to 21/28 of the flushes and the 21 are wayyyyyyy more likely than the other 7. If he has a set, it makes no sense for him to mini raise the turn given I could have a hand like AxQh, AxKh. I think my turn bet is awful here. Against a good player like Artie, after I fire into two people and fire AGAIN when the flush hits, he should be able to lay down an ace and he will fold anything he floated with (88, gutter or even open ender that paired up or something like that). He's not mini raising two pair and allowing me to draw to a flush cheaply . He's not miniraising a set and allowing me to draw to a flush cheaply. The only thing that I could consider him miniraising the turn with is a cheap showdown hand like AxQh, AxJh. But then again, by miniraising, he allows himself to be shoved off those hands, so I don't even know if he can have those. Also, if he was going for a cheap showdown, why the heck would he shove river? Also, him viewing me as steaming (after just having stacked me with his AA) makes him way way way way way less likely to bluff. He is quite clearly value betting, without a doubt on the river. Am I beating enough hands that he is value betting on the river that he would ALSO play like this on the turn? thx, dlpnyc21
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#15
09-28-2007, 02:03 PM
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Re: ez river fold with flush? 25/50/100 Live game
[ QUOTE ]
dlpnyc21, I know this is completely the wrong forum to ask in but I think you should do a well... P.S. my two cents... a) Even though he thinks you like to make hero calls, does he view you as good enough to lay down a flush? b)Have you seen him or anyone do the min raise (turn) shove (river) bluff (set-up bluff) esp on draw heavy boards or completed drawy boards? Imo this is a bluff more than value-towning but wtf do I know. [/ QUOTE ] what is a well?
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#16
09-28-2007, 02:19 PM
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Re: ez river fold with flush? 25/50/100 Live game
[ QUOTE ]
Also, him viewing me as steaming (after just having stacked me with his AA) makes him way way way way way less likely to bluff. He is quite clearly value betting, without a doubt on the river. Am I beating enough hands that he is value betting on the river that he would ALSO play like this on the turn? [/ QUOTE ] It seems like you keep contradicting yourself. You're saying that his most likely hand is a flush since he expects you to call since you're tilty, but shouldn't his range be much wider than that. Your hand really doesn't look like a flush at all here. In fact, your hand doesn't even have to be more than 1 pair here, which increases the likelyhood that he's bluffing or valuebetting worse hands than yours. Whether he wants/expects you to call this bet is kind of hard to discern because of the history and everything, but I would be more confident in folding here if he could possibly have any idea that you have a flush, which he doesn't. All that said, I think you just beat too much of his range to consider folding here.
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#17
09-28-2007, 03:03 PM
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Re: ez river fold with flush? 25/50/100 Live game
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] dlpnyc21, I know this is completely the wrong forum to ask in but I think you should do a well... P.S. my two cents... a) Even though he thinks you like to make hero calls, does he view you as good enough to lay down a flush? b)Have you seen him or anyone do the min raise (turn) shove (river) bluff (set-up bluff) esp on draw heavy boards or completed drawy boards? Imo this is a bluff more than value-towning but wtf do I know. [/ QUOTE ] what is a well? [/ QUOTE ] a well is a noun, typically meaning a hole drilled or bored into the earth to obtain water, petroleum, natural gas, brine, or sulfur.
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#18
09-28-2007, 03:06 PM
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Re: ez river fold with flush? 25/50/100 Live game
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] dlpnyc21, I know this is completely the wrong forum to ask in but I think you should do a well... P.S. my two cents... a) Even though he thinks you like to make hero calls, does he view you as good enough to lay down a flush? b)Have you seen him or anyone do the min raise (turn) shove (river) bluff (set-up bluff) esp on draw heavy boards or completed drawy boards? Imo this is a bluff more than value-towning but wtf do I know. [/ QUOTE ] what is a well? [/ QUOTE ] Example Example
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#19
09-28-2007, 03:21 PM
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Re: ez river fold with flush? 25/50/100 Live game
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] dlpnyc21, I know this is completely the wrong forum to ask in but I think you should do a well... P.S. my two cents... a) Even though he thinks you like to make hero calls, does he view you as good enough to lay down a flush? b)Have you seen him or anyone do the min raise (turn) shove (river) bluff (set-up bluff) esp on draw heavy boards or completed drawy boards? Imo this is a bluff more than value-towning but wtf do I know. [/ QUOTE ] what is a well? [/ QUOTE ] Example Example [/ QUOTE ] ehhh...those are famous online celebs-i'm not really in that category. not really qualified for one
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#20
09-28-2007, 05:25 PM
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Re: ez river fold with flush? 25/50/100 Live game
B.S to both your fold and your not being qualified for a well. As to the hand, I think his hand is either the king high flush or bluff. I think he would be too worried that you in fact have the king hi flush draw and would raise more on the turn rather than the min raise. When viewed in this context, his combo flushes are no longer 21/28 but much lower. I think this is a call and its not even close.
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