top set with position (theory)

[Aisthesis]

This is something I keep coming back to, and here are my conclusions up to now for FR: OOP, try to get it all-in on the flop. With position, if things are looking HU-ish, just call a real bet (>2/3 pot). With an "unreal" bet, I'm raising a wide range just out of principle, definitely including top 2 as well as top set.

Where I start to get a bit unclear is when it's not HU-ish. Say the action goes bet, call, then to you with top set.

Taking the extreme case of a totally dry board, I again like calling because all you can be up against are pretty much AA, top 2 or lower sets, all of which are in sufficient trouble that there's not a lot of worry about protecting your hand.

On the other extreme, if it's a very drawy board, like K76 twotone, then, while there are hands to which you're behind with naked top set, the dead money is going to make a push at least +EV even against the great drawing hands (which of course no one necessarily has anyway). Moreover, roughly half the deck is going to be a scare-card for you as well as middle set here. Ok, I'd probably still feel comfortable repping a straight if an offsuit 3 hits and it's checked to me, and I think the straight or flush is going to have to play really badly to check it to anyone but an LP maniac--since someone is supposed to have KK here. So, I think you're probably wise to hammer down.

You may be lucky and be up against 2 draws that are blocking one another and both have to call, and you still have most of your boating outs. But in the worst case, you at least clean up one boating out (that was a quadding out for a lower set), and you have some dead money in. And maybe the draw isn't ultra-strong anyway. So, I'm really thinking a raise is probably the best play even with just naked top set if you have 1 extra caller in there. Make them have the monster draw.

But how about kind of middle-of-the-road boards, something like AK8r where you have AA? Well, the best anyone can have here is a 9-outer, and KK is a plausible hand for betting, and you have position.

I think I'll try an EV calculation in a separate post.

[Aisthesis]

I'm first going to assume rational opponents. If they can't lay down a 9-outer or KK, then a raise is definitely the best play here (in my live game, I think this actually may apply to some).

Case 1: You call, but are going to slam any "blank" (more later) turn. For easy calculation, I'm going to assume a $10 flop pot and plenty of stack-depth.

You know 4 cards from your hand, plus 3 from one opponent, and let's just say that KK is the other hand in, so there are 10 known cards and hence 42 unknowns in the deck.

Of these, 9 are going to fold you out, and you lose $10.

Another 29 are going to go as follows: KK again bets pot of 30, call, then you raise and win. So, you win a total of 80 here.

Then there are the paired boards (1 A, 1 K, and 3 eights for 4 instances), where things get a little tricky. These fold out the straight draw for sure, and the cases are all rather different.

Once you have quads. KK probably half-pots the 30, which you flat call, and the river is then 60. I think you can probably average maybe 20 on this river, which is what I'd bet to a check. KK also might easily make a mistake and bet the river into you, though, so the 20 may be conservative. Anyhow, you win 20+15+20 = 55 total (definitely more against some players).

Once KK presumably has quads. I think KK checks here, and I think AA should, too, played this way. I'm for calling any river bet. And, since we assumed that your quads get a call for 20, let's assume KK also bets 20, and you call. I'm calling full pot here, too, but note that the same player who bets his quads at full pot (seems rare) is also likely to bet full pot on the turn when an A hits. So, the extra should be more or less a wash. Let's just say you lose 20 plus your flop call. So, it's -30.

3 times KK has a big full. It's also kind of tricky here since 88 is just so much less usual than KK. 88 is in any case capable of winning a pretty big pot off of me here. Let's say KK bets the turn at 15, I call, then half pots the river again for 20, where I mini-raise, and he flat calls. So, you win 20+15+40 = 75.

EV for the whole thing: 57.14

Case 2: You just take it down. EV here is only 20. So, calling is vastly superior, even though you get outdrawn sometimes.

Hmmmm... I think this raises some other interesting issues, too. While I wouldn't suggest it in a 3-way pot, I wonder if it's not a good idea to routinely raise AQJT HU in this spot, simply because now AA is much less common than KK as betting hand due to your own holdings. And that should theoretically buy you calls from KK sometimes on an AA raise (eventually, a raise like this will be shown).

[Aisthesis]

Now let's make the board drawier still, but still rainbow.

First, one thing about most of these drawy boards is that you're looking at mid-range cards, and hence sets less frequently than on high-card boards. Hence, if you get a bettor and a caller on something like K76r, there's a very good chance you're looking at 2 draws, which probably also block one another. In fact, I think it's almost always the case. As a result, I think raising is just better in principle if the board offers 13 outs or more. You're likely to get a call, and they're not only pretty far behind but they're often further behind than they think they are.

And, if you get lucky enough to flop top set with something like 99, and the board isn't already straighted (like 982r), you may get great action from a smaller set, who is much more inclined to put you on a draw with your raise.

So, I'm thinking with 13 outs or more possible, just go ahead and repop with top set.

I also forgot to get back to the "blank turns" issue in the previous post with the AK8 board. There really isn't such a thing as a blank turn imo if you look more closely at it. If it's 5-9, now all of a sudden a BUNCH of rivers look bad for you due to the middle straight, and very low cards make a wheelish draw. Admittedly, it's quite unlikely that anyone is going to make the "new" straight draw, but specifically, the side-cards for KK are random, so if they just happen to fit right in there, I personally am going to call a pot-sized bet into the implausible straight, hence offering quite good implied odds. As a result, I think it's better just to avoid all of this stuff and shut down the action on the turn--with the one exception that you pick up as much as open-ender to the new draw (or pick up a reasonably high flush draw). Now all of a sudden you're getting some sweet implied odds out of KK if you make one of those. If your hand is THAT strong, I think calling even on the turn starts to seem attractive.

[Ribbo]

Just shove arrrrrrinnn.

[Aisthesis]

lol, well, you definitely can if you're playing against idiots or else are raising a very large range. I really think the latter is the only viable alternative to the flat call method.

If that's yours, I'd like to hear more about ranges. I do think the AQJT raise with position on an AK8r board is pretty interesting.

However, it seems to me that auto-raise sacrifices a lot of your positional advantage and, on drawier boards, tends to keep only those hands in that are in good shape against you.

But I'd love to hear a more detailed alternate opinion. That's why I posted.

In practice, my policy has generally been: HU = flat call usually with top set, but one additional caller = raise. I think that line is improvable, though, and a lot is related to the way you play other hands, specifically draws of various kinds (particularly draws with a pair, as in the AQJT case).

[Perestroika]

I think I have a problem raising this hand against a good thinking opponent. It really comes down to risk/reward. Are you betting the turn? If you are not betting the turn I feel your hand is fairly obvious and you will not get a lot of value from KK/AK. If you are betting the turn (when you miss) you are really only folding out AK, I just don't see KK folding. I may be completely off here, but unless your opponent is calling oop without a pair of aces beat on that flop, his range is almost always two pair or better. IDK, I guess you get a fold out of your opponent enough to make it a profitable play on the flop, and you always have outs, it just seems like your checking the turn 4/5th the time and now he can play his AK perfectly.