Great laydown, or am I retarded? FT 3/6

[Leader]

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Does the lead out on the turn, after he called the raise on flop worry you at all? The reasoning for calling the turn was, Button just called 2 cold, SB called then leads. I was like ok one weird line no big deal, but two weird lines something isn't right. Just me probably thinking to much.

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BT cold calling the flop isn't a weird line for him though. It's probably his SOP. The part of his range that has you beat is a very small part of his flop CC'ing range.

As to SB, stop and go doesn't impress me. It's not like you always have the best hand. He could have AA-QQ or TT/88 but mostly he has AT/KT/99/77/66 or something even more retarded like AK. With the other guy likely padding the pot with his pair/draw, it's a raise IMO. Calldown if 3-bet because of outs and AT.

[Oink]

Leader. Super small sample I know. But looking at his stats so far you need to discount KT, AT, 99, 88 heavily.

@OP

I think you played this one well. Capping preflop is fine but with those stats of SB you are prolly not giving up a lot. However, since its 3-way you need to cap unless you are VERY sure that the SB's range is JJ+, AKs. And as stated in other threads; you cant be that sure after 50 hands.

[Gurravasa]

To analyze this I start to think about how often our hand is good by the river here. If we believe the stats given it can't be very often, I would guess JJ is good about 5% by the river when we take our decision on the turn.

The good thing is that our outs is probably clean. The Jc gives us the nuts and a FD is not that likely so the Js will win the pot like 90-95% i reckon. If we only draw to our J outs and intend to fold UI on river we clearly don't get the odds we need. What if we plan to call river UI? I put the expected pot size (our second bet on turn and bets on river excluded) to 15BB. Then JJ needs to be good 8% against theese two players on the river. Given the action, player stats and the possible redraws that can hurt us, I don't think we can proceed.

[Leader]

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Leader. Super small sample I know. But looking at his stats so far you need to discount KT, AT, 99, 88 heavily.

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I consider that read basically worthless for anything more then deducing that he's probably tight. I've never seen a 12/10 guy in 6m so I'm going to assume that he's running bad with starting cards. The fact that he's raised almost all of them suggest that he's much more likely to be 25/17 then 25/10. KT should probably be discounted some though. It should also be noted though that most players with PFR between 15-20 3-bet the same things in this particular spot.

[Willem_D]

Since you didn't cap before the flop (which I would have), SB probably doesn't put you on an overpair. He may interpret you raise on the flop as an attempt to get a free card on the turn and foils that by donking the turn again. I will definitely raise here again because I am probably ahead and need to charge Button to draw to his flush (which is still the most likely holding at this point) or 5 outer (split pair).

As played, I would probably call down after Button' raise. I may even have 8 outs to beat him if he has 2 pair. Close decision though.

[Gurravasa]

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Since you didn't cap before the flop (which I would have), SB probably doesn't put you on an overpair. He may interpret you raise on the flop as an attempt to get a free card on the turn and foils that by donking the turn again. I will definitely raise here again because I am probably ahead and need to charge Button to draw to his flush (which is still the most likely holding at this point) or 5 outer (split pair).

As played, I would probably call down after Button' raise. I may even have 8 outs to beat him if he has 2 pair. Close decision though.

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What do you put SB on?

[Willem_D]

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What do you put SB on?

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Hmmm, I see what you mean. Pretty stupid I didn't consider the preflop action. SB cannot have many hands that you beat. AK, AQ of spades are the only real possibilities (only one combination both). You are behind to AA-QQ and TT, split with an unlikely JJ (only one combination). He probably won't 3-bet worse hands preflop and he's unlikely to donk again with just 2 overcards.

Actually, now that I think of it more, I agree with the fold. You need to be ahead of both players here and I doubt this will be the case often enough for calling down to be EV+.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
To analyze this I start to think about how often our hand is good by the river here. If we believe the stats given it can't be very often, I would guess JJ is good about 5% by the river when we take our decision on the turn.

The good thing is that our outs is probably clean. The Jc gives us the nuts and a FD is not that likely so the Js will win the pot like 90-95% i reckon. If we only draw to our J outs and intend to fold UI on river we clearly don't get the odds we need. What if we plan to call river UI? I put the expected pot size (our second bet on turn and bets on river excluded) to 15BB. Then JJ needs to be good 8% against theese two players on the river. Given the action, player stats and the possible redraws that can hurt us, I don't think we can proceed.

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If one is drawing and the other gets gun-shy with just a T then there's a chance that an A or K on the river would end up getting checked-around for a free-showdown.

Not saying it's a guarantee or anything. But I've been including some weird drawing possibilities for the last player and if that's the case I don't think he's going to fire a bluff at the end against 2 opponents.

So I still think we're close to being able to call.
But that dude raising with a 0.3AF is still pissing me off so I really don't know.

[QuietEarner]

Sorry guys for the delayed response here. Been at work. I feel a little better about the fold atleast since there are some people who say fold, but seems like the majority say call it down.

In case anyone was wondering SB showed AA, and Button showed 22 for the set. So I guess I made the right decesion on this instance, but still a little unsure for the long run. Seems like the call then fold UI (to the set) is the line I like the best depending on the betting on the river.

[MacGuyV]

I would fold pre-account creation because FT is the most rigged site ever.