#1
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Basic Statistics...
Any math buffs out there, help me figure this out. I'm too lazy to look up the correct method of solving this.
The probability of a player having AA or KK on any random shuffle is 1/114 (approx - so give or take a few on that). Anyway... If there are 6 players at a table, all dealt a random hand, what is the probability that ONE of the players has AA or KK? And how do you figure this? |
#2
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Re: Basic Statistics...
6/114
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#3
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Re: Basic Statistics...
[ QUOTE ]
6/114 [/ QUOTE ] No, because you have not factored for cards that have been already dealt. |
#4
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Re: Basic Statistics...
thats what I quickly came up with too.... but it doenst seem right to me.
Works out to about 5%, meaning one in every 20 hands a player has AA/KK. Is that right? |
#5
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Re: Basic Statistics...
It won't be far off.
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#6
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Re: Basic Statistics...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 6/114 [/ QUOTE ] No, because you have not factored for cards that have been already dealt. [/ QUOTE ] What do you mean exactly? |
#7
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Re: Basic Statistics...
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] 6/114 [/ QUOTE ] No, because you have not factored for cards that have been already dealt. [/ QUOTE ] What do you mean exactly? [/ QUOTE ] the second person has a smaller # of card combinations available b/c the first person has taken away 2 cards. the same follows for persons 3-6 edit: xpost this in probability and jayshark or someone will have it done pretty quickly. i'm lazy [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
#8
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Re: Basic Statistics...
It's very annoying to work out but 5% is probably close. Do a monte carlo sim if you rly wanna know.
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#9
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Re: Basic Statistics...
cool, thx guys
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#10
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Re: Basic Statistics...
Probability that a player is dealt AA: 1 in 221.
Probability that a player is dealt KK: 1 in 221. Probability that a player is dealt AA or KK: 2 in 221. Probability that a player is NOT dealt AA or KK: 219 in 221. Probability that six players are not dealt AA or KK: since these are nearly independent events, we can get a rough estimate by taking 219/221 to the sixth power, which is 94.7%. The odds that one or more players is dealt AA or KK will then be 100% - 94.7% = 5.3%. Since the odds of TWO players being dealt AA or KK is going to be about a factor of 100 smaller than the odds of one player being dealt AA or KK, we can just pretend this is the answer. So, call it five and a half percent or so. The numbers are rough estimates, and calculating it exactly would improve the accuracy very little while being markedly more of a pain in the butt. |
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