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#131
09-26-2007, 07:26 PM
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Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
I think Ohio is decent with a near win against WYO and a win against ULL.
ULL had just competed decently against South Carolina the week before. Of course, WYO has beaten UVA and also competed okay against BSU. Both of those opponents' names don't really grab you but I think they are slightly higher quality performances than one might initially think. I also like Ohio's home-field advantage decently. Don't know about the numbe3rs there but they do have some of the more enthusiastic crowds in the MAC. IMO, if Kent is better it's only slightly. This line feels about right to me and I don't feel like there's a lot of value in Kent. 
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#133
09-26-2007, 07:58 PM
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Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
[ QUOTE ]
What about Clemson -3 at Georgia Tech? Tech has laid an egg since crushing ND opening week. Clemson has beaten up some decent teams. I find it hard to believe that Clemson is only a 1 pt favorite on a neutral field. Only negative I see is that Clemson plays Va Tech next week, but I can't imagine they overlook a conference road game. [/ QUOTE ] The real question here is how much do you trust Cullen Harper? Georgia Tech's run defense has been very good this year and they should be able to keep Davis and Spiller under control. The secondary, however, is porous against any decent QB. If you really think he's for real based on the NC State game, he should be able to lead Clemson to a double-digit victory. If not, and the Tigers are forced to rely on the ground game, I think the Jackets can hang even and will have a very good chance to pull out the win at home. This seems like a game where the public would definitely be on Clemson and that's enough that I'd lay off even if I wasn't a Jacket fan, but the number does seem small and I'd still lean Clemson here. I really expected this to open with the Tigers as a 6-7 point favorite.
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#134
09-26-2007, 08:49 PM
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Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] What about Clemson -3 at Georgia Tech? Tech has laid an egg since crushing ND opening week. Clemson has beaten up some decent teams. I find it hard to believe that Clemson is only a 1 pt favorite on a neutral field. Only negative I see is that Clemson plays Va Tech next week, but I can't imagine they overlook a conference road game. [/ QUOTE ] The real question here is how much do you trust Cullen Harper? Georgia Tech's run defense has been very good this year and they should be able to keep Davis and Spiller under control. The secondary, however, is porous against any decent QB. If you really think he's for real based on the NC State game, he should be able to lead Clemson to a double-digit victory. If not, and the Tigers are forced to rely on the ground game, I think the Jackets can hang even and will have a very good chance to pull out the win at home. This seems like a game where the public would definitely be on Clemson and that's enough that I'd lay off even if I wasn't a Jacket fan, but the number does seem small and I'd still lean Clemson here. I really expected this to open with the Tigers as a 6-7 point favorite. [/ QUOTE ] What makes you think Tech's run defense is so great? I did a quick look at the box scores and while they dominated a disheveled ND offense, it doesn't look like UVA had too much trouble running. Peerman had 28 carries for 138 yards last week. BC didn't run the ball well, but it didn't look like they wanted to since they threw for 400+ yards. I'll definitely defer to your ACC/Tech knowledge though if you say they are solid against the run. Any special motivations in this game?
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#135
09-26-2007, 09:27 PM
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Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
Virginia ran the ball a lot because they're a running team and that's what they do. They still averaged less than 3 YPC though and even Peerman averaged less than 5 YPC. Sewell's scrambling/option ability was completely shut down to the point that Lalich was brought in for a while to give more of a pocket passing look. Overall, GT ranks #11 in rush defense on the season, so that's definitely a strength for them.
Actually, Clemson's run defense has been quite a bit worse than their pass defense this year which is another very favorable matchup for Georgia Tech as the Jackets have run quite well, but really haven't got the passing game going at all. They've even gone to direct snapping it to Choice about 5 or 10 plays a game when they're really looking to pound it. And yes, there's a little extra motivation for GT as last year, they were ranked in the Top 15 and on a 5 game winning streak, when they went to Death Valley and got embarrassed. At least, it should be enough that Georgia Tech doesn't play let down after starting 0-2 in the ACC. I really think the motivation will be about even here though, as Clemson still has outside hopes at a national title and Georgia Tech will be their first decent opponent since the opener vs. FSU. I kinda have a gut feeling that this is a "trap game" from the book's standpoint where they're looking to get unbalanced action on the Tigers. It was the obvious the public would be on Clemson and they still opened it at GT -1. The matchups which are often underadjusted for work in GT's favor, and I think there's a pretty good chance they keep it close. Also, Sagarin says the game should be a PK. One final thing to remember is that Clemson hasn't really proven anything this year. They had a nice win over FSU in the opener, but since then played a Sun Belt team, an FCS team, and the worst team in the ACC. They're still an unknown quantity at this point and could go 7-5 just as easily as they could go 11-1. I'm staying far away from betting this one.
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#140
09-28-2007, 01:55 PM
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Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
i am with you..i did not consider it til i watched this. www.2boobsports.com
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