Flopped OESD but he's got a tight range EV Math $4.40

[tomek322]

results? Did you muck this as well? If I was in your shoes and this was the third hand this guy is over betting into me. I think the frustration of losing to one person would get me and I would shove it.

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
Which is a range of 99+,AJs+,KQs,AKo. I figure he calls all the pairs and folds all the nonpairs. So I get called 64% of the time and he folds 36% of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

This range can't be right. While I agree it is probably 4.5% on the Pokerstove slider, this is not what people actual raise with. Drop KQs and ad AQo+. I'd also go down as far as 77+. That seems more appropriate.

Ok, you figured out his range PF, but now you have to make some adjustments after the flop. Bond asks, "Does he make a oversized bet on this flop with overcards?" Well? Does he?

The point is, we have more info that just PF and we should use that to adjust his range on the flop. I doubt he always c-bet-overbets the pot on every flop.

My feeling here is that whatever he has on the flop, he folds very near 0 of it to a shove. That means you have 0 FE.

You also figured that he folds all non-pairs, but he still isn't folding two over-cards diamonds. Hell, he probably isn't folding any two diamonds. So you have to count those in his range as well.

Anyhow, I'd adjust his flop range to be more like this:
77+,AKo,AKs,AdJd,AdQd. That range gives us:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.114% 35.02% 00.10% 20801 57.00 { 7s5s }
Hand 1: 64.886% 64.79% 00.10% 38485 57.00 { 77+, AKs, AdQd, AdJd, AKo }


However, because we have no FE against his range, we are in bad shape here. I think the best play is to fold.

Sherman

Edit: Just saw that he actually potted it on the flop. However, it probably doesn't change a whole lot of his range and given the pot-stack sizes, I still think he calls with overcards some % of the time so our FE isn't as great as we percieve it to be.