nl25 -- cbet defense fundamentals

[gedanken]

villain is like 35/15/4, and almost guaranteed to cbet this flop

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($21.35)
BB ($13.90)
UTG ($24.65)
MP ($18.10)
CO ($74.60)
Button ($21)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls $0.90, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($2.25) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ???

1/2 pot donk to head off the cbet? checkraise? checkfold?

I used to know how to play poker...

[Milky]

If you're going to donk it should be a PSB or close to it, as you'll just invite a raise with a smaller bet. I'd probably c/c and see what happens on the turn though I have no idea if that's the right move.

[bozzer]

good question, don't know the right answer. i have a feeling people play very differently in these sorts of spots.

[monkeymaps]

hmmm/ so if you think he c-bets this with 100% of his range you def profit by floating here?

how often does he raise your donk bet with a worse hand?
how often does he call a donk bet with a worse hand?

do you want to turn 99 into a bluff by c/r
these are some questions to start off with but im not sure what the best play is here either.

[meleader2]

if he cbets 100% of the time a c/r turn lead is good. i'd c/c the river though unless a heart falls.

2/3 pot on the turn.

u make a pair 33%~ of the time so the chance it's a king is real slim. if ur met with aggression, chuck it, and make a note for the next time u do this.

[Khumalo]

I'm a little confused by OP's scenario with 99 in the SB versus that particular UTG raiser.

Why are we simply calling his raise when we'll be OOP and with no initiative for the rest of the hand? If we're only playing for set value, then we see the flop and typically check-fold unless we hit. If we think we're ahead of UTG's range, then we should 3-bet our 99 to something like $5 pf and take it from there. (E.g. We make it $5, he folds / he calls, but folds to our flop lead / he four-bets pf, we fold (or whatever) / etc.)

As played, I think c/c is a little ugly, because we hate so many turn cards, and prefer a c/r on the flop. But I'm not a fan of calling UTG raises pf in the SB without a very secure post-flop plan (such as hit set or c/f.)

[Obfuscation]

One possibility is to c/r the inevitable pot size bet. Many times habitual c-betters will dump right away here and not 3-bet with air.

If you get 3-bet, dump. If you get called then reevaluate on the turn, likely check folding although I find that many villians will check behind on the turn after calling your c/r on the flop so it's not unlike a pre-emptive free card play.

[jtr]

Hmm. Sadly I think folding is almost certainly the best plan here.

You said the opponent was running at 35/15/4. He raised you from UTG. That means the proportion of hands that he's playing from that position would be something like 10%, maybe even less if he's decently positional. If we put him on the top 10% of NL hands (say any pair, AQo+, ATs+, KQs, QJs, JTs) then your equity on that flop is about 48%.

But you're not going to make much money when you're ahead (not a penny more I'd guess) and you're going to lose a significant amount when you're behind (OK, if you're behind to TT, JJ, or QQ you may do well in getting him to fold).

So fold. I think you really are just playing the 99 for set value given this flop.

I like the previous suggestion about 3-betting preflop if you think he doesn't call 3-bets often enough. You were 55/45 against his range preflop, so you may need to hit a set if called but he's likely to have a tough time calling.

[AZplaya]

Not a huge fan of floating OOP, I'd much rather donk this flop probably folding to a raise. You may miss some value from a cbet but calling down with middle pair on this board OOP seems gross. I don't hate a c/r but I still prefer donking for about $2.
Oh and fwiw, I 3 bet 99 from the blinds against a 35/15 always, but maybe thats just me.

[traz]

Every now and then I'll play back in this spot, I don't auto muck to a cbet here, not at all. This board's probably not the best to take a stand here, but if I decide to get jiggy I'm ccing the flop and then donking any turn.