Inflection Point Question

[KStV]

FullTilt $2 + $0.25 NLHE. 314 started, 63 cash, 54 remaining. No real $$ until the final table.

t150/t300 + t50 Antes. New Table (no reads).

UTG: (t10,000)
MediumStack: (t11,300)
MP1: (t21,500)
VeryShortStack: (t1,400)
ShortStack: (t2,700)
CO: (t5,500)
BUTTON: (t6,000)
SB: (t13,600)
BB: (t6,500)

UTG folds.
MediumStack raises to t1,200.
MP1 folds.
VeryShortStack pushes All-In for t1,400.

ShortStack is holding 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]


What are the pros and cons of shoving here?

[metsandfinsfan]

M is 3. assuming medium stacks calls you are risking 2700 to win 6300, or 2 1/2 to 1. You are probably a coinflip or better. Only 4 hands are way ahead of you here

Medium stack needs to call 1500 to win 4800 so he is calling unless he was on a total bluff.

i push

[johnnydrama]

Got to push. M is 3 (if I did my math right). You are proabably getting called by the Medium stack, don't think you can make this an isolation move with your stack size.

Pros - Got to get chips quickly and pocket 10s is a great hand in this spot.

Cons - can't see any. Other than how did you get so low?

Put them in and hope.

[KStV]

I worked my way down to 3Ms by passing up shoving opportunities in order to cash. Probably not worth it.

Isn't there an argument here that I'd be better off open-shoving ATC on the next hand rather than trying to play TT three-ways? Wouldn't Harrington say that MediumStack showed real strength and my first-in vigorish and fold equity are both Zero? Or does that not matter in my desperate situation, given the odds you point out above?

[johnnydrama]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't there an argument here that I'd be better off open-shoving ATC on the next hand rather than trying to play TT three-ways? Wouldn't Harrington say that MediumStack showed real strength and my first-in vigorish and fold equity are both Zero? Or does that not matter in my desperate situation, given the odds you point out above?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would agree normally if your M was a bit higher, and maybe if there is a pay jump if SS gets knocked out, then I may find a fold here. But 10, 10 is a premium hand here against the ranges you will see here I think. Your fold equity is 0 no matter when you put your chips in when this low.

[metsandfinsfan]

[ QUOTE ]
I worked my way down to 3Ms by passing up shoving opportunities in order to cash. Probably not worth it.

Isn't there an argument here that I'd be better off open-shoving ATC on the next hand rather than trying to play TT three-ways? Wouldn't Harrington say that MediumStack showed real strength and my first-in vigorish and fold equity are both Zero? Or does that not matter in my desperate situation, given the odds you point out above?

[/ QUOTE ]

there is a good chance you are not playing it 3 ways. Even if he does, assuming the cutoff calls with any broadway or any pair, and the initial raiser has 88+, A8s+, AT+. KTs+, KQ, you still have 37% equity. And i think the cutoff is folding here more than you think

[KStV]

Thanks for your thoughts, guys. I did push, MediumStack called with AK, VeryShortStack showed J-r, and MediumStack caught his K. It felt right when I pushed, but then I was worried that it may have been foolish. I'm just learning low-yellow and red zone play and it's very counterintuitive to me.

[metsandfinsfan]

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.192% 40.07% 00.12% 549287 1649.67 { ThTs }
Hand 1: 39.581% 39.46% 00.12% 540904 1649.67 { AsKh }
Hand 2: 20.227% 20.11% 00.12% 275614 1649.67 { Jh5c }

so 40% of the time you end up with t9000 and 60% you end up with zero.
still a correct push