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#41
03-13-2006, 11:16 PM
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Re: calling out suitedsixes: the \"lazy aggressive\" strategy
[ QUOTE ]
Nice post Greke. [/ QUOTE ] If you look closely, you will notice that I'm not longer "Greke". [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [ QUOTE ] If I attempt to steal in level 5, the chips I can gain if both blinds fold is 1200 or 6% of the prize pool. But, in no more than 5 minutes, the same steal becomes worth 1800 or 9% of the prize pool. At the $55s, this is an increase of $15 in $EV. [/ QUOTE ] It's hard to do this, and you will very rarely find a steal that's worth that much of the prize pool. If you get one, it generally means that you have AA or KK which you should obviously not pass up. In general, I would say that if something is a good steal now and a good steal later, you should take both of them. There are times of course that it might be worth passing on such a steal, but it would generally have to come when you have a marginal edge and one of several things must be true. The first situation would be the rather odd situation where people have been making very bad all-ins and very bad calls frequently (hence ignoring the points I just made). So that the value you get by folding and waiting for them to bust one another is greater than the value of a steal (or call of a steal). In a more normal game, you would need to calculate several things. First, you need to make sure that you are likely to get such an opportunity again (i.e. the steal is marginal) and you will need to make sure that you're still going to be around to attempt that steal (i.e. your stack is ample). In addition, it helps if you're at a table that still has a lot of people left, as it gives you a better chance to get into a spot where you have a more substantial advantage. This is why people can play very tightly early on and still have a very solid ROI in SNGs. Without getting too technical about the math, you can see that the formula computed by SNG-PT is incomplete. In general, you should take that number computed by the program and adjust it according to future expectations gained by being called and winning, winning the blinds, and then subtracting future expectations caused by being called and losing. For instance, being called and winning can often create bigger advantages in terms of stealing, but being called and losing means that you won't have any future expectations ever. It should also be noted that although your are gaining value every time you make a +EV steal, you're also automatically losing EV each round because you have to pay the blinds and antes. So if you pass on an opportunity to make a play so you can make one next round as in the example, you will lose 1200 one round, but gain 1800 the next, which makes a net of only 600. In SNGs, I think many people tend to vastly overrate their edge later for this reason. Once stacks get short, it becomes very hard to gain an edge later. 
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#42
03-13-2006, 11:31 PM
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Re: calling out suitedsixes: the \"lazy aggressive\" strategy
[ QUOTE ]
If you look closely, you will notice that I'm not longer "Greke". [/ QUOTE ] Thank God, I thought I was losing my mind. I swore I remember you relaying a goddamn anecdote about your mispelled name in that "How you picked your 2+2 SN" thread.
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#43
03-13-2006, 11:54 PM
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Re: calling out suitedsixes: the \"lazy aggressive\" strategy
This is one of the main adjustments I have had to make with the speed tournaments. At some stages in a tourney against certain players (ideally a pushbot+donk combination) I have found it much better to let them take on each other, passing EV on to me.
There are a lot of situations in the new landscape of SnGs where two people feel they have to play that particular hand. Letting them do so = $.
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#44
03-13-2006, 11:59 PM
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Re: calling out suitedsixes: the \"lazy aggressive\" strategy
Nice post 66. Pooh and I had done some distribution improvement (ITM in particular) exploring earlier this year. This frame of mind 3-handed has provided substantial improvements for me in the turbos as well.
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#46
03-14-2006, 09:58 AM
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Re: calling out suitedsixes: the \"lazy aggressive\" strategy
[ QUOTE ]
While I want every chip that I can get, taking chips away from my most equally-stacked opponent is my priority as they have more worth to me from a competitive standpoint (I know this is wrong from an ICM standpoint). [/ QUOTE ] What? Making the short stack shorter is insanely +EV under ICM. Stealing from short stacks is way better, do some sims and check it out.
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#47
03-14-2006, 10:00 AM
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Re: calling out suitedsixes: the \"lazy aggressive\" strategy
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Nice post Greke. [/ QUOTE ] If you look closely, you will notice that I'm not longer "Greke". [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Why is that?
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#48
03-14-2006, 10:04 AM
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Re: calling out suitedsixes: the \"lazy aggressive\" strategy
[ QUOTE ]
Of course, I'm the guy who won't take on students no matter how many ask, [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]. Yugoslav [/ QUOTE ] Maybe you know something they don't [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#49
03-14-2006, 03:59 PM
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Re: calling out suitedsixes: the \"lazy aggressive\" strategy
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Of course, I'm the guy who won't take on students no matter how many ask, [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]. Yugoslav [/ QUOTE ] Maybe you know something they don't [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Yes I do. That I don't want to coach. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] Yugoslav
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#50
03-14-2006, 05:23 PM
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Re: calling out suitedsixes: the \"lazy aggressive\" strategy
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Nice post Greke. [/ QUOTE ] If you look closely, you will notice that I'm not longer "Greke". [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Why is that? [/ QUOTE ] I wanted the prefered spelling of my name (which is the way it's spelled everywhere else), so I put in a request to have it changed.
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