Flopped OESD but he's got a tight range EV Math $4.40

markbris · #1 09-26-2007, 02:09 AM

This guy is 29/9 been pretty tight with raises from what I've seen. Hows the pf call?
Edit: This is the FT so are there $EV considerations here?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1600 (6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

UTG (t41024)
MP (t62137)
CO (t47837)
Button (t44674)
SB (t48180)
Hero (t26148)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG raises to t3200, 4 folds, Hero calls t1600.

Flop: (t5550) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets t8000, Hero ?

I did the math if I shoved and this is what I did. He raises 9% of hands so I figured 4.5% of top 9% he raises from UTG.
Which is a range of 99+,AJs+,KQs,AKo. I figure he calls all the pairs and folds all the nonpairs. So I get called 64% of the time and he folds 36% of the time.
Theres 8100 in the pot PF
8000 bet on the flop
So when he folds I win 16100x.36= 5760
When he calls Im a 31% dog against his range of pairs, so
.31x 31100= 9641
.69x 23000= 15870
9641-15870= -6229x .64= -3986 total when called. So this gives me a total EV of 5760-3986= 1774 so a +EV move. What do you guys think? Someone wanna check my math please to?

Bond18 · #2 09-26-2007, 07:41 AM

I can't check your math because i'm not any good at it. However, there is one issue here; at these stakes do overcards bet way over pot like this?

tomek322 · #3 09-26-2007, 08:09 AM

If i must continue with this hand, I would call and assume he folds to any diamond. If I don't feel this is a correct assumption, I fold.

levAA · #4 09-26-2007, 08:24 AM

Not sure what this overbet means, but your math looks good.
Even without that if you play cards like 75s in the BB you have to instashove this, otherwise you would have to fold preflop.

korleone_x · #5 09-26-2007, 08:47 AM

Maximize your FE by open shoving this good flop. It's a hard call for villain unless he has something, and if you call the flop and turn bricks you have a lot of your stack in with a draw and only one more to come. Since you have the smallest stack, I don't think $EV is all that important to consider here, but I could be wrong.

markbris · #6 09-26-2007, 11:18 AM

I don't really like open shoving here because I fold out a good bit of hands yes but all those hands fold to a checkraise as well so why not wait for him to bet and then do it. Bond, Im not really sure if overcards overbet like this actually so this is probably not as good a move as I was thinking because you probably have to weight it towards him having an overpair. What do you think of the preflop call, should I just be folding?

tomek322 · #7 09-26-2007, 01:17 PM

Open shoving is bad... he puts you on FD with overs and may decide to gamble with any pair. After you c/r this guy is getting like 3:1, I can't imagine he folds much. Sucky spot to be come to think of it.

Can we just lead out? Looks stronger than a shove.

BarryLyndon · #8 09-26-2007, 02:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Open shoving is bad... he puts you on FD with overs and may decide to gamble with any pair. After you c/r this guy is getting like 3:1, I can't imagine he folds much. Sucky spot to be come to think of it.

Can we just lead out? Looks stronger than a shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

Leading out is gonna make your opponent scratch his head and put you on 97 or A5 or something, he'll probably come over the top if he has you beat, either with 66 or better. The board isn't scary enough yet.

If you want to get adventerous in this hand and really put your TAG opponent to the spot, smooth calling is best, followed by making two value bets of 10K each if one of numerous scare cards comes out. If you get RRed on your first bet, you are committed, so you aren't making mistake by calling. But, since you are in the BB, calling/leading is best, you are still deep enough to bet + leave a threat for a second 10K bet on the river.

Barry

tomek322 · #9 09-26-2007, 02:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Open shoving is bad... he puts you on FD with overs and may decide to gamble with any pair. After you c/r this guy is getting like 3:1, I can't imagine he folds much. Sucky spot to be come to think of it.

Can we just lead out? Looks stronger than a shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

Leading out is gonna make your opponent scratch his head and put you on 97 or A5 or something, he'll probably come over the top if he has you beat, either with 66 or better. The board isn't scary enough yet.

If you want to get adventerous in this hand and really put your TAG opponent to the spot, smooth calling is best, followed by making two value bets of 10K each if one of numerous scare cards comes out. If you get RRed on your first bet, you are committed, so you aren't making mistake by calling. But, since you are in the BB, calling/leading is best, you are still deep enough to bet + leave a threat for a second 10K bet on the river.

Barry

[/ QUOTE ]

come to think of it this whole hand sucks... fold pre, j/k definetly interesting spot.

markbris · #10 09-26-2007, 05:10 PM

Also the converter messed up, the pot is right at 8100 on the flop if i figured correctly so he just potted it. Im starting to lean more towards the fact that he has an overpair though with such a large bet. In the previous hand where I had KJ he made a pretty large bet on the river, like 3/4th pot with a boat and then another one later on the J8 hand. This is the same villain from those hands, I dunno if i explained that clearly. So im thinking he likes to bet harder when he goes for value. Thoughts?

edit: I don't know what he had on the J8 hand.