AQ brings twopair, turn decision

CruS · #1 09-25-2007, 06:23 PM

I have no reads on villain

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($25.65)
Hero ($25.80)
MP ($19.45)
Button ($44.60)
SB ($24.65)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.25.
2 folds, SB completes, Hero (poster) raises to $1, SB calls $0.50.

Flop: ($1.75) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.25, SB calls $1.25.

Turn: ($4.25) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3, SB raises to $9

Spinners · #2 09-25-2007, 06:24 PM

push

RedSoxFan · #3 09-25-2007, 06:32 PM

put all your chips in the middle

Nick C · #4 09-25-2007, 07:04 PM

I really am quite worried about JT here. It's just the one hand that seems consistent for a fishy player on all streets.

But we don't have a read on Villain at all, and there are some worse hands he could have. And if it is in fact JT that he's got, it doesn't look like you'll be getting let off too easy on the river.

So I guess you might as well push, but I am going to say that I'm not ecstatic about the situation. I mean, you did just get turn checkraised, as the PFR, on an AKQx board. I doubt Villain thinks he's bluffing.

To be honest, I think that folding is a consideration, and if it's worse than pushing, it's probably not worse by a whole lot.

Nick C · #5 09-25-2007, 07:12 PM

FWIW, here are some combos:

JT = 16
55 = 3

A5 = 8
AJ = 8
AT = 8
KQ = 9

And, yeah, that looks good, except that I want to discount the hands we're beating -- probably significantly (A5 is the only one that seems very consistent with the action on all streets once we take preflop into account) -- and I see no reason to discount the hands we're losing to.

On the other hand, the pot's not empty . . .

CruS · #6 09-25-2007, 07:17 PM

my thinking here was he is either:
bluffing
semi-bluffing
value raising KQ
has JT
flopped monster

Nick C · #7 09-25-2007, 07:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
my thinking here was he is either:
bluffing
semi-bluffing
value raising KQ
has JT
flopped monster

[/ QUOTE ]

It's hard to say since Villain is completely unknown, but it seems like a horrible board to be checkraise bluffing against a PFR, even in a blind battle.

I mean, once you bet the turn, it really does look like you have something, and quite possibly that something is very strong.

mookboi · #8 09-25-2007, 08:11 PM

I don't see us getting away from this hand. 2 Pair with AQ is too strong to fold. Folding here is so weak tight. Get it in there.