NL 25 - QQ 200bb deep vs c/r ai on low drawy board

[tercet]

Villian was 40/31 over 50 hands at the time it happened. Not many reads cause i was 12 tabling at the time at about 4k hands straight at this point.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($26.10)
UTG ($33.95)
MP ($41.95)
CO ($9.65)
Hero ($49.55)
SB ($11.70)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3.5</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls $2.50.

Flop: ($7.35) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $30.45</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $17.35

[tercet]

Bump, sorry

Posted it early this morning a few responses would be appreciated.

[Perk76]

Good fold. Calling here would be taking the worst end of it. Looks like a AsKs/AsQs/AsJs/6s8s type move.

[senorquinn]

I like the fold. You are not committed and he raise and called UTG. 200BB is a lot to call in this situation.

[zooot]

Effective stacks are more like 136 BB's.

(Yes, I'm a nit [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

Tough spot. Flop should not hit too much of an UTG opening range even from a 40/31. I assume he raises much less than 31% UTG.

Higher SC spades (FD+overs), low pairs (pair + SD or set), or high pairs (if he doesn't 4-bet AA/KK pre) is a range he could do this with. Hard to see him w/ a pair+FD unless it's A5ss.

I guess I'd stove a range similar to that vs. QhQd and prob fold.

edit: imo This is tough bc we are readless. Stats indicate LAGtard preflop but w/out any reads on postflop play it's difficult to know what this particular villain's range could be.

[dirtylobster]

This is a fold without any further reads.

[nutstoyou]

I think this is very close between a fold and a call. I don't think he does a CRAI with a set on this board. I think most players would either check and call with a set if he was pretty sure you would c-bet or lead out on the flop but not CRAI.

He could have AA, or KK which would be a big problem but I think it is more likely that he has some type of very good draw, maybe to AsKs or As5s.

These hands do put him ahead of QQ to ultimately win the pot, but with the money already in the pot, I think it's positive EV to call if he does have these draws.

It's hands like these that make poker interesting. I probably sit at my computer and flip a coin. Heads I call, tails I fold lol.

[traz]

Would you guys fold KK?AA?