Time to take a stand against blind stealer?

[QuietEarner]

Last 3 rotations I've been in SB, it's been folded around and this guy has been raising everytime taking the blinds. This is time number 4, time to take a stand right?

Obviously the river hit me, but say another blank falls, do I bet again?

Full Tilt 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

River: (6.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>,

Final Pot: 8.75 BB

EDIT: Title

[Gurravasa]

looks fine. If you don't hit river you probably can check/fold.

[Absolution]

[ QUOTE ]
looks fine. If you don't hit river you probably can check/fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aaron W in microstakes made a post a while ago where he analyzed blind steals over small samples. I think his conclusion was that it's highly likely that someone was a loose stealer after only a few raises in this spot. It's unlikely he's always getting cards when folded to on the button. I like your 3-bet here. You should be doing the same as him though in steal positions if the table is folding around a lot. I generally don't stay at these tables when they get like this, but when I do I start raising just about any 2 in the CO and button until they catch on. Then it falls back to fold mode and I start again. Fun.

[Oink]

3-bet liberally with good Kx hands vs button steals.

Not because you have a huge eq edge. Its small if its positive.

But because of implied folding equity.

In this hand any K high and J high flop is obviously good for you. But any A high flop will also make him fold a lot of hands as you are repping a good A with the preflop 3-bet. If he is really tight you might even fold a pp on a ATx flop.

I will almost always 3-bet KJo in this spot and also KTo.

The rest of the hand is good.

c-bet the flop of course

Since he is peeling a lot on the flop you bet again on the turn expecting to fold a lot of hands, including Ax hands.

River is an obvious valuebet. I would consider a sexy tho but this prolly misses value from Ax which is a big part of his calling range. Against a bad LAG I will sexy this river all day.

[Absolution]

[ QUOTE ]
If he is really tight you might even fold a pp on a ATx flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying that if you raised 55 on the button, got 3-bet in the SB, and the flop came ATx that you'd be trying to get to showdown? Would you be calling the flop to make him fire again on the turn?

[bobhalford]

I think that if a blank fell on the river, you might as well bet, because he's folding Ax or KQ more than 1 in 7 times. I always feel a bit ill after checking a blank river only to see villain has some Ax hand that he would likely fold to a river bet.

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you saying that if you raised 55 on the button, got 3-bet in the SB, and the flop came ATx that you'd be trying to get to showdown?

[/ QUOTE ]


Certainly depends on villain. But prolly not on Axy flop where x is a broadway. So maybe the ATx flop was a bad example.

But I wouldnt fold on a A74 flop against someone who has Kx, QJs, QTs, JTs, T9s, 98s etc in his range.


BTW if I get 3-bet with a pp on the button by an aggressive player in the BB I will often cap, so it doesnt really come up.

[ QUOTE ]
Would you be calling the flop to make him fire again on the turn?


[/ QUOTE ]

I am not sure you should raise. The good thing about calling is that you will often see a SD for 1.5 big bets as he is checking river a lot.

The tricky decision is on the river if he 3-barrels A7472 board. He shouldnt expect you to fold so you need to decide whether he is bad enough to not know this.

If he is tight postflop I would just peel flop and fold turn UI if he fires two on A747

[jessie]

How bad is a river check here? I really wouldn't mind seeing what he has been raising with and don't want him to fold some draw or K high. And being aggressive isn't there a chance he would bet A high or worse pairs?

[Oink]

I think he has Ax too often.

Aggressive doesnt equate bad. And it would be bad if he bets Ax in position here.

There is no value in seing what he has IMO. Well, at least not a lot of value. His range is huge on the button, thats all you need to know. Besides, I can tell you what he has; Ax almost always

[jessie]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he has Ax too often.


Besides, I can tell you what he has; Ax almost always

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm certain you're right - I just don't think he'll call a bet.

Thanks