Rivered 2nd Nut flush but paired board - Value Bet River OOP?

[Buzz]

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But I find, if I bet many of the Fish players will fold (they were calling on a longshot), but I can pick up extra bets from weak hands.

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Rob - What to do is always opponent dependent.

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Rarely do they bluff raise, unless I've happened to have bet/fold-ed a few times.

[/ QUOTE ]Agreed. And that is one reason not to bet/fold very much.

Another is sometimes rather than bluff raising, an opponent might simply make a mistake and overplay a particular hand. For example, someone might think trip nines is better than it really is and might raise here with trip nines.

It's true that someone could have the nut flush, a full house, or even quads. Meanwhile, all Hero has is the 2nd nut flush. Thus the threat of a raise is scary - and I agree a raise is a distinct and ugly possibility. Simply losing to the nut flush or a weak full house seems more of a threat than getting raised.

But yes, the risk of getting raised is scary.

However, I think at least at lower limits you get paid off more than you get raised.

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The problem with bet/call on the river is that frequently it retrospectively gives them the implied odds they needed to justify the loose flop call.

[/ QUOTE ]I don't see why that's a problem. You have to like opponents making loose flop calls. If they retrospectively feel they have gotten proper odds for their loose calls, so much the better. (Maybe the loose call wasn't a mistake this time but will be next time when the circumstances on the river are different).

Buzz

[RobNottsUk]

It's a problem because, they're only making a loose call if they don't get the implied odds, they needed. If you pay off, then their call was good.

Furthermore, due to passivity your good hands standing up tend to win small pots, if you lose more than the minimum on outdraws, it cuts your profitability heavily.

There's a wide range of hands they call with, usually many outdraw possibilities. Also they call with better hands than what you'll bet with, so frequently you have to consider that you may never have had the best hand.

Frequently the pot odds tempt a river bluff attempt, on scare cards, so against someone you've value betted heavily against, inducing a bluff is a profitable play.

In certain cases, I've decided to check/raise with the nuts, because I was sure they'd bet/curiosity-call, but not raise me if I bet on the board.

So rather than following some rote rule, I think the aim (as you wrote earlier) is to make profit on the river, and that means reviewing the whole hand, the board, and choosing your favourite variation, seeking to maximise the difference between wins and losses.

[PLO8FaceKilla]

I only play HUPLO8 sngs but i run into this situation. Against aggressive opponents i get scared to bet into them b/c i don't want to be raised and have to make a decision but rarely will they bluff raise. And if they raise, for the most part, i know i am beat. So i should bet it but i still don't all the time. It depends on who you are playing

Now if i know i'm playing some over-aggressive moron who likes to always throw out pot bets and i've been folding a lot, I'll check and insta call the pot bet, figuring to get more money than i would if i just bet 1/2. Plus, it adds a little frustration for him too b/c i played the hand "bad" and he was caught, which is another bonus to the check/call