Latest cliffsnotes on Absolute soulreading.

[knappis]

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yeah, it is, but you haven't calculated the probability of our fundamental suspicion, which isn't that he folded everytime someone else had a big pair (he didn't) but that he started wit 93% of his hands but never called a river beat.

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I was going through the stats from the known sessions to see if we could make an aproximate model for his river play and I found that one important stat is missing. We need to know how often he saw river.

One odd thing with is his went to showdon stats that are in the 22%-32% range. Wouldn't they be higher if he could see everybodies hole cards? Anywqay, that was just a side track.

I'm also not to sure the stats support the idea that he made perfect river play. And in fact what you say is that he didn't make a perfect play even in the 25 hand sample. I don't know if you realise this buit there is a big difference in the odds between perfect play and a play that allows for a few mistakes. I can just take my model of the 25 hand session as an example:

Perfect play vs 4 big pairs:
(4/25)*(3/24)*(2/23)*(1/22) = 1:12650

1 mistake vs 5 big pairs:
(5/25)*(4/24)*(3/23)*(2/22) = 1:2530

[knappis]

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yes but who wrote that? I have never seen the 260 confirmed by anybody with access to the data

on a sidenote: how reliable is the SD number itself from such a small sample?

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Thoise stats are not really reliable but it is all we got atm. I don't understand why the ones sitting on the actual data does not realease it s we can try to do some serious modeling of this issue.

I do beleive that this villains SD would be extreme though because he has extreme stats on the to primary stats that would ingreas SD - vpip and river agression. This means that trying to infer his actual SD from other players stats would not make any sense.

[knappis]

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People are getting mathematically longwinded here with calculations that don't factor in EVERY PT stat. It takes an understanding of poker, not statistics, to grasp this.

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The reason I'm not doing this is that it is etremely difficult to do and that certain key stats are missing. Anyone that thinks it is easy to model the probability that this guy is cheating is either lying or dosen't understand he complexity of this issue.

Vi8llain has several extreme stats and some of you would probably hink that this is evidence in itself. And if the stats were independent, such inferences can sometimes be made. But that is not the case here. All the stats are dependent on eaqch other. If this guy isn't cheating (which we have to assume when we do modelling) he plays an extreme maniac style of poker with extreme vpip and river agression. This style would increas his SD of winnings dramatically which would make extreme winning and extreme losing sessions quite common. This could explain why he seem to alternate between cheating and chipdumping.

Edit: I would be much more suspicious if a TAG grinder would show winning stats similar to this guy.

[McSeafield]

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People are getting mathematically longwinded here with calculations that don't factor in EVERY PT stat. It takes an understanding of poker, not statistics, to grasp this.

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The reason I'm not doing this is that it is etremely difficult to do and that certain key stats are missing. Anyone that thinks it is easy to model the probability that this guy is cheating is either lying or dosen't understand he complexity of this issue.

Vi8llain has several extreme stats and some of you would probably hink that this is evidence in itself. And if the stats were independent, such inferences can sometimes be made. But that is not the case here. All the stats are dependent on eaqch other. If this guy isn't cheating (which we have to assume when we do modelling) he plays an extreme maniac style of poker with extreme vpip and river agression. This style would increas his SD of winnings dramatically which would make extreme winning and extreme losing sessions quite common. This could explain why he seem to alternate between cheating and chipdumping.

Edit: I would be much more suspicious if a TAG grinder would show winning stats similar to this guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

We all know how difficult it is to substantiate cheating in such a case. But we also know how difficult it is to discuss stats if you have no true random sample. You can pick out a certain sample, make a special assumption and discuss the result then like chewing gum in any direction.

I have the following questions to you:

1) Could you please explain why certain key stats are missing?
2) Why do you think that the stats are dependent on each other?
3) How do you like modelling this case, what assumptions to you use and what model would you like to use?
4) You want us to believe this guy isn´t cheating, he plays an extrem maniac style of poker and his chipdumping can be explained because of his high SD. Is this correct?
5) How can you assume that a TAG grinder could show winning stats similar to this guy?

btw: I have also an academic education in statistics and likelihood math. Send me your PT stats. Then I will try to understand you and reconstruct your test or model. In addition, I would prefer to figure out, whether I would have a chance to reach the same figures as an extreme maniac poker player without knowing the hole cards.

[realjaydub]

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Oh, so you know a crime was committed, yet you refuse to report it.

Okay.

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God damn do you just troll the [censored] out of every thread you post in or what

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It's not a troll nerd. Why hasn't anyone reported this to the authorities, like Josem suggested?

[knappis]

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1) Could you please explain why certain key stats are missing?
2) Why do you think that the stats are dependent on each other?
3) How do you like modelling this case, what assumptions to you use and what model would you like to use?
4) You want us to believe this guy isn´t cheating, he plays an extrem maniac style of poker and his chipdumping can be explained because of his high SD. Is this correct?
5) How can you assume that a TAG grinder could show winning stats similar to this guy?

[/ QUOTE ]

1)To be able to model river play I need to know how often he saw river.
2)Do you think the stats are independent? Is SD of winnings independent of vpip and river agression?
3)I'm not sure yet. I was just trying to figure out a simple model to test the probability of this guys river play.
4)I dont want you to beleive this guy isn't cheating. I'm trying to figure that out myself. However, I do try to provide better estimates than the ones that has been flying around in this thread and probably convinced half the poker world that he must have been cheating because it is one chance in 10^20 or at least one in a billion he didn't.
5) Read again. I didn't assume a TAG could show these winning stats, I said that that would be very suspicios.

[burningyen]

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lol i love how people are calling me dumb

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I wasn’t calling anyone dumb, although I might have been thinking it. I do think it’s dumb to ignore adanthar’s point about how a couple of weeks’ worth of good play can easily be wiped out by a few choice pots with a *smart* cheater…and make no mistake, the cheaters will now know how to cheat better. You Absolute regulars were sooo lucky that the cheaters were such morons up to this point. In the future, your bluffs will be called by more plausible hero calls with bottom pair rather than T-high, your biggest pots will tend to not go your way as often as before, you will be facing big winners with VPIP/PFR of 40/20 in full-ring (or whatever the plausible borderline for winning stats is) rather than 90/x, you will be facing players who know how to avoid getting to showdown with anything suspicious, and none of them will be pegged for cheating because oh look, they do lose the occasional small pot. Also, I wonder whether players who want to cheat via other means (collusion, multi-accounting) will now flock to Absolute since Absolute has made clear that cleaning up their site is job #23897937301.

But the point I was *actually* making in my earlier post was that anyone who goes back to Absolute no longer deserves any sympathy for whatever happens to them after that. That’s what “gl with all that” means to me, at least.

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when they aren't half the player I am

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I have no idea who you are, but you are likely correct in my case. Not sure why that’s relevant, though.

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and probably didn't lose anything

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You’re good.

The thing that really annoys me most about the return of the Absolute regs isn’t the fact that they are rewarding Absolute for their completely incompetent and/or dishonest response to the cheating, or the fact that people will continue to be cheated on Absolute (which will obv happen). It’s the fact that all the other sites have now been sent a loud and clear message that running a clean game and taking care of cheated customers are no longer mandatory for getting return business. This hurts us all, no matter what site we play at.

[A2steaksauce]

wasn't there supposed to be another thread for all the stats discussion?

[Warteen]

It looks like this issue is definitely being swept under the rug. Absolute is not going to issue a public statement, and the news mags aren't going to pick it up. It may as well have never happened, to 99.94% of the general public.

[ikestoys]

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lol i love how people are calling me dumb

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I wasn’t calling anyone dumb, although I might have been thinking it. I do think it’s dumb to ignore adanthar’s point about how a couple of weeks’ worth of good play can easily be wiped out by a few choice pots with a *smart* cheater…and make no mistake, the cheaters will now know how to cheat better. You Absolute regulars were sooo lucky that the cheaters were such morons up to this point. In the future, your bluffs will be called by more plausible hero calls with bottom pair rather than T-high, your biggest pots will tend to not go your way as often as before, you will be facing big winners with VPIP/PFR of 40/20 in full-ring (or whatever the plausible borderline for winning stats is) rather than 90/x, you will be facing players who know how to avoid getting to showdown with anything suspicious, and none of them will be pegged for cheating because oh look, they do lose the occasional small pot. Also, I wonder whether players who want to cheat via other means (collusion, multi-accounting) will now flock to Absolute since Absolute has made clear that cleaning up their site is job #23897937301.


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1.) I don't think it was in response to you, but w/e
2.) Playing 40/20 isn't that unreasonable with a 200bb buyin. I play 35/30 and run 5+ptbb/100
3.) I don't really see any reason to feel safer on FTP or PS. You may all think they would handle this differently, but I don't think this is true. I also believe that Abso would have to be complete idiots to not shut this down for now. The good thing in all of this is that I'll be keeping a much closer eye on whats going on.
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But the point I was *actually* making in my earlier post was that anyone who goes back to Absolute no longer deserves any sympathy for whatever happens to them after that. That’s what “gl with all that” means to me, at least.


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reasonable.
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when they aren't half the player I am

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I have no idea who you are, but you are likely correct in my case. Not sure why that’s relevant, though.

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Its relevant because you are calling a better poker player than you an idiot because he's playing poker.

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The thing that really annoys me most about the return of the Absolute regs isn’t the fact that they are rewarding Absolute for their completely incompetent and/or dishonest response to the cheating, or the fact that people will continue to be cheated on Absolute (which will obv happen). It’s the fact that all the other sites have now been sent a loud and clear message that running a clean game and taking care of cheated customers are no longer mandatory for getting return business. This hurts us all, no matter what site we play at.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not playing for absolute, I'm playing for the cash the site sends my way on a rather consistent basis