US Army: "World oil production is at or near its peak"

[Il_Mostro]

A few interesting snips from this report, made by the U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center:
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Petroleum Trends
The supply of oil will remain fairly stable in the very near term, but oil prices will steadily increase as world production approaches its peak. The doubling of oil prices in the past couple of years is not an anomaly, but a picture of the future. Peak oil is at hand with low availability growth for the next 5 to 10 years. Once worldwide petroleum production peaks, geopolitics and market economics will result in even more significant price increases and security risks. To guess where this is all going to take us is would be too speculative. Oil wars are certainly not out of the question. Disruption of world oil markets may also affect world natural gas markets as much of the natural gas reserves are collocated with the oil reserves.


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World oil production is at or near its peak and current world demand exceeds the supply. Saudi Arabia is considered the bellwether nation for oil production and has not increased production since April 2003. After peak production, supply no longer meets demand, and prices and competition increase. The proved reserve lifetime for world oil is about 41 years, most of this at a declining availability. Our current throw-away nuclear cycle will consume the world reserve of low-cost uranium in about 20 years. Unless we dramatically change our consumption practices, the Earth’s finite resources of petroleum and natural gas will become depleted in this century. Coal supplies may last into the next century depending on technology and consumption trends as it starts to replace oil and natural gas.

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More at the links
energybulletin.net
EnergyTrendsUSArmySummary
Full report

[Exsubmariner]

This is an interesting report. I recommend for anyone to read the whole thing, or at least the executive summary. Interesting comments about Nuclear Power and Liquified Coal.

[John Feeney]

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Coal supplies may last into the next century depending on technology and consumption trends...

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They may even be overestimating coal reserves. In the report I see they write:

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U.S. coal reserves of 280 billion tons equal
about a 260 year supply at current rates of consumption,

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But we will are not staying at current rates of consumption. If you account for accelerating consumption levels, the number of years left in the supply go way, way down.

Al Bartlett gets into that in this talk, which I highly recommend:

Arithmetic, Population, and Energy

In fact, I recommend it for anyone intested in peak oil or population and consumption growth. A few weeks ago I had a chance to chat with him for about an hour, and got to hear the talk in person. I think it might change the minds of some who are skeptical that population growth, peak oil, and related issues are real problems.

[adios]

I would guess that you're long oil related investments and coal related investments. I am btw. Wouldn't it make abundent sense to buy stocks related to the oil and the coal industry as a hedge even if you doubt the "peak production" thesis? Not an attempt to hijack, just pointing out that people can hedge against this possibility FWIW.

[tytygoodnuts]

There is an interesting documentary on peak oil supply called "The End of Suburbia". It's very good.

[wacki]

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But we will are not staying at current rates of consumption. If you account for accelerating consumption levels, the number of years left in the supply go way, way down.


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All you need to say is "1.3 billion chinese".

[Borodog]

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But we will are not staying at current rates of consumption. If you account for accelerating consumption levels, the number of years left in the supply go way, way down.


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All you need to say is "1.3 billion chinese".

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1.4. No, wait, 1.5. 1.6, 1.7, . . . [censored] it. Nevermind.

[jokerthief]

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But we will are not staying at current rates of consumption. If you account for accelerating consumption levels, the number of years left in the supply go way, way down.


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All you need to say is "1.3 billion chinese".

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We don't have to export coal to China though.

I think that the answer to the energy crisis is going to be solar power though. Kinda like Moores Law, I think we are going to see the price to performance of solar panels lower drastically. The decentralization of our power grid would be nice as well as the zero emmissions of solar.

[wacki]

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Kinda like Moores Law, I think we are going to see the price to performance of solar panels lower drastically.

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I disagree. You can't double the performance of materials like you can by double pumping a boolean circuit. Also, the physical science sector is probably the most neglected in colleges right now. There aren't many of them and there isn't enough money being thrown at the few that exist. Those guys take a looooong time to train.

[Il_Mostro]

I'm not actually. I prefer not to own oil or coal stocks, there are too much nasty stuff being done to the environment and people in the hunt for oil profits. I prefer to not have a stake in that.

I agreee with you, though, you can to some extend hedge against the possibility. The latest financialsense newshour has a reasonable interview with Stephen Leeb on that very subject

http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2006/Leeb.html