Live NYC - 25/50 with trips

[Ansky]

Looks like T9ss

[rock1]

so i actually was not hero in the hand, just observing a friend who was hero...i agree with a lot of Cero's analysis (i usually do) except that cero doesnt adjust for the game being in NYC - i think flush draw is a very real possibility...i still think this is rarely a bluff...even if small blind is putting hero on a flush draw, strong A, weak 8 it would be very difficult to cc,cc,crai without a monster...that line as a bluff is either suicide or a plan A until the river that becomes a plan B...

anyways, htought there were interesting aspects to the hand...hero did fold and SB did not show

[radradrad]

yes/yes
I think he's got an A.

[bigballz]

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yes/yes
I think he's got an A.

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gotta be an ace!

[PokerForMath]

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I think this is a fold, and unless I was getting a pretty clear anxiousness tell from my opponent, I would consider checking the river. He seems to have an 8, which would point towards betting. But, most would not be totally cool calling the 1200 on the turn with 98 or less (they'd do it but you'd see some tension as they realize that you probably have an 8 also and have position with a lot more money to bet). His "thoughtful" call IMO is rarely anything less than AK, and usually, it's a medium 8.

Here's why: he has to have an 8 or a very strong ace to call on the flop. You could be betting a flush draw or even air some of the time, but he has to worry about the players behind him on this paired flop. He'll rarely have a flush draw, c/c'ing your bet from the SB. So, he probably has an 8. When he c/c's your pot bet on the turn, we rule out flush draws completely for solid players; hopefully people agree with this, because it seems very obv to me and I hate being wrong [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] When he thoughtfully calls my bet, I'm a little concerned. The sidecards are all pretty plausible to accompany an 8: A, 7, and then J on the river, though he just completed the straddle from the SB in a limped pot, so admittedly many players can have a wide variety of 8s.

When he c/r's the river, there is one legit hand you can beat: Q8 in the hands of a pretty agg player who really hunts for thin value *might* play this way. Other than that, he has to be bluffing or be full. He shouldn't put you on a bluff, since he looks pretty strong here. I expect to see 87 a lot here. Maybe he was rope-a-doping you with AQ or 98 up to the river, allowing you to semi-bluff or bet an Ace hard. But, when he c/r's the river, as opposed to c/c'ing or simply donking the river for value, it's almost never a bluff. Good players are capable of it if they realize (probably through physical reads) that you're not full, but a bluff here is really rare with this line IMO.

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awesome

[PokerForMath]

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You are the best possible trips and lose to every boat.

Hero ahead of:

trips:
Q8, T8, 98, 68, 58, 48, 38, 28 (32 combinations)

two pair:
J7, A7, AJ (27)

straight:
9T (16)

Hero behind boats:
A8, J8, 78, 77 (12)

Throw in even a small possibility he sees on on a bluff, then throw in two pair and straight possibilities and you are way ahead.
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Since when does trips beat a straight?

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Never

[FoxwoodsFiend]

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You are the best possible trips and lose to every boat.

Hero ahead of:

trips:
Q8, T8, 98, 68, 58, 48, 38, 28 (32 combinations)

two pair:
J7, A7, AJ (27)

straight:
9T (16)

Hero behind boats:
A8, J8, 78, 77 (12)

Throw in even a small possibility he sees on on a bluff, then throw in two pair and straight possibilities and you are way ahead.
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Since when does trips beat a straight?

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in certain variants of guts and chinese poker pretty sure trips beat a straight

[PokerForMath]

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Looks like T9ss

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This is really interesting.

If villain has T9ss is it profitable to cr ai on the river?

What is hero's range? Easily includes 68 - A8, does it make sense to crai if you think you fold out all the naked eights and only get called by the fulls? If this is true, then isn't this a perfect situation to bluff with a broken fd?

[F0rtysxity]

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I can't decide... I mean if he's VBing worse 8s then obv insta-call but I don't know if he is.. and if he's not I'm pretty sure you can lay it down if your read isn't that he's "fully capable and willing to bluff frequently in this spot"..

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i think there's zero chance he has a worse 8 here.

i feel that 90% of the time he has you killed right here with a boat and 10% of the time he is bluffing, maybe with an ace or some kind of hand where he thought he might have been good on the flop but changed his mind as the hand developed.

with any hand that is probably good like a str8 or trips there is no need to push on the river since you can show down a winner. (ie why reraise if you only get called by a hand that beats you.)

i vote for the fold, at worst he has 8s full of 7s?