Like the TMQ, all picks guaranteed wrong or you money back! (week 3)

[ensign_lee]

SageStats ensign_lee

YTD: 5-10-1
Units Won: -11.59

~~~
Well, if the object was fading me, you would have done EXTREMELY WELL so far! haha. But it's ok; it's a long season, and hopefully I have what it takes to turn this around. One week at a time.

So, here we go!

Sea -3.5 (+111)
2 units at matchbook

Seattle plays extremely well at home, in case nobody's noticed. Here, they're getting to face a Cincinnati team that has to be tired after last week's debacle. I've found that fading teams that just played in a hard fought either rivalry game or divisional game is +EV.

Matt Hasslebeck was this close to pulling out the game last week against Arizona. Even though the offensive line is throwing kinks at him like never before, I still have confidence in him and Alexander to get the job done against Cincy here.

Oak -3 (-104.5)
2 units at matchbook / justbet

Cleveland is not as good as they seemed last week. I mean, holy hell, they looked pretty good on offense last week. But I don't think that's anywhere near sustainable. They were the other party in that fierce "leave it all on the field" fight last week with Cincy. I also think that they'll just run out of gas here.

This is more of a play fading Cleveland rather than betting on Oakland. Even Oakland can get a bone every once in awhile, right? Oh boy...I'm betting on Oakland again, aren't I? Wish me luck?

Stl M/L (+180.32)
1 unit at matchbook

Tampa Bay sure looked good last week against the Saints, eh? Meanwhile, the Rams sure looked terrible last week, didn't they?

I think this line is an overreaction. Tampa is not as good as they seemed last week; St. Louis can't possibly be as bad as this line would suggest. You're telling me that if Tampa went into St. Louis, this line would be Rams -2.5 and not -3? Huh.

All in all, even assuming that these teams were evenly matched (and I honestly think that St. Louis is still the more talented team), then this bet would be +EV. Go go Rams go?

Denver / Jacksonville OVER 36 (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan

This is a play I'm taking on the advice of a fellow handicapper. It also helps that the Pinny lean is on this play, with Pinny hold Over 36 at -110 while other books are either A) holding 35.5 (-110) or B) holding 35 (-110). Not only is pinny holding the highest number, but they are holding juice against it so that people would be indifferent towards taking this bet at Pinny or at a normal full juice book.

Honestly, if you can play this at over 35.5 (-110) instead of over 36, I'd recommend you do that. Unfortunately, none of my books seems to give me this option, so I took the best I could: Over 36 (-105).

Washington / New York OVER 41
1 unit at BetTrojan

This is a play base purely on the Pinny lean. Pinny is holding the over 41 at (-115) juice, holding the under at (+105) correspondingly. In other words, if Pinnacle is going to hold OVER 41 as a bet, they would pay (-105) for it. Anything that Pinnacle is willing to take, I'm willing to take. Weeh over 41 (-105)!

[zOrO2k6]

hard week..
i like OAK -3 and STL +3.5
no money line.

GL ALL

[ensign_lee]

Hard week indeed. Yay losing one game by a half point and yay losing another by a point. But thus are the breaks...shame.

~~~
New Orleans -4 (-105)
3 units at Skybook

Was eyeing this game all week and think that this game has hit its apex. I don't think the line is going to get any better. Was actually hoping to use the free half point at Sky to get to -3.5, but whoops. hah.

The Titans aren't as good as everyone seems to think that they are. The Saints...well...it's posisble that they're as bad as they've seemed so far, but lots of teams might look bad starting off their first two games on the road. I think that they'll play well here at home against a team that really doesn't have many weapons on offense and who has a defense that the Saints should be able to score on. I think after that first score, it'll be like a weight lifted off the shoulders of the Saints offense.

I really think that the Saints can win in a rout here.

[MrFeelNothin]

Isn't it about time to clear your record and start over?