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#41
09-24-2007, 12:21 AM
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Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Still like ND there? Purdue's offense is pretty good...I think you're basically betting that ND can score 20 points which I'm not really a fan of doing. I'll probably lay off this one. - C - [/ QUOTE ] My thinking on ND +21.5 is the Irish homers will load up on them later in the week, hopefully bringing the line way down creating a huge middle. I don't plan on letting +21.5 ride by itself. [/ QUOTE ] Definitely could see that. Think you can ride it to 16.5? Might be pretty sweet... [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] - C - [/ QUOTE ] Could happen, last week it dropped like 2-3 points in the couple hours before the game. 
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#43
09-24-2007, 12:40 AM
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Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Still like ND there? Purdue's offense is pretty good...I think you're basically betting that ND can score 20 points which I'm not really a fan of doing. I'll probably lay off this one. - C - [/ QUOTE ] My thinking on ND +21.5 is the Irish homers will load up on them later in the week, hopefully bringing the line way down creating a huge middle. I don't plan on letting +21.5 ride by itself. [/ QUOTE ] +1 I plan on doing the same [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
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#44
09-24-2007, 01:38 AM
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Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] And... PENN ST-3-110 [/ QUOTE ] Only one I saw that was too good to pass up. Keep hittin' that SFla boys, get it back under 7 for me. [/ QUOTE ] I'm going to be on the opposite of this big I lost hope with PSU last week...totally unispired offensive/defensive game planning good luck trying to run that vanilla crap offense in Champaign. Illinois shut down that offense last year and I'd expect the same again this year. Last year, the only reason PSU won was some terrible special teams play by Illinois and turnovers by Juice Last week, Illinois found a punter (i'm serious--they finally found a punter). This year, Juice has been much better at not turning the ball over. Oh yeah, Rashard Mendenhall is a beast. So far, he has been right up there with Mike Hart as the best running back in the conference. Rashard crushed the PSU defense last year. He should be even better this year with Connor moved from the outside to the MLB spot. PSU's defense, while great against the run this year, has only faced traditional attacks and inferior opponents. That young line is going to be tested big time against the spread rush attack of Illinois. Illinois led the big11ten in ypc last year and are off to a stellar start this year. Honestly, Mendenhall has looked like the Big11Ten version of McFadden this year. Both teams will likely suck passing. While the Illini D has struggled v spread attacks, they've been great v traditional attacks like that PSU has. Just like the Nittany Lions failed to challenge a Michigan D that struggles out in space, I see the Lions unwilling to find ways to challenge the Illini D in that way. The Lions have not run well at all v the real defenses. I would be kind of stunned if they run well v the Illini front 7. It will be upto Morelli to create PSU offense....we all know how that goes. Illinois loses if Juice turns the ball over way too much and PSU's return men shift the field alot on special teams. Otherwise, this game looks like a low-scoring Illini win as they actually have a rushing attack due to a better o-line, better running backs, and a spread philosophy (Illinois is like a weaker, but still effective version of West Virginia). I haven't bet it yet, but I'll be on the Illini.
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#45
09-24-2007, 02:07 AM
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Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
the numbers
last year Illinois at Penn State Illini had 19 first downs on 42 carries for 202 yards and were 13 of 33 for 156 yards Penn St had 10 first downs on 24 carries for 40 yards and were 18 of 34 for 144 yards PSU lead in sacks 6 to 2 and were +2 in turnovers
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#46
09-24-2007, 08:24 AM
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Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
Wow... you're more of a guru than me on NCAAf, so I feel *really* good to read this (don't know how I missed this post last night). This is absolutely/100%/precisely what I thought of when I thought about this game yesterday. I donked off money on Louisville in that game last year, and vowed to learn from it. I grabbed +7 on USF happily...
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#47
09-24-2007, 10:13 AM
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Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
Good analysis MT2R, though I think the PSU D is built to handle speed rushers than power rushers. Last year's was the opposite. The DL was big and powerful guys that had trouble containing outside stuff. In general I like PSU for a decent rebound this week, but I'm also a fan and may be looking at it through shaded glasses drinking Kool-Aid which is why I never bet on them.
- C -
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#48
09-24-2007, 12:27 PM
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Re: Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Still like ND there? Purdue's offense is pretty good...I think you're basically betting that ND can score 20 points which I'm not really a fan of doing. I'll probably lay off this one. - C - [/ QUOTE ] My thinking on ND +21.5 is the Irish homers will load up on them later in the week, hopefully bringing the line way down creating a huge middle. I don't plan on letting +21.5 ride by itself. [/ QUOTE ]
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