Pokey, where is the road to VT in this situation?

[CruS]

I actually only made it 2/3rds of the pot (17$)

[EMc]

[ QUOTE ]
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Bet 12. Shove river

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THis man knows something. I see what he did here

[CruS]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet 12. Shove river

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

THis man knows something. I see what he did here

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something like this?

[Jago]

Hmm guess I was wrong

how much better is the bet/shove line when compared to the CRAI?

[CruS]

Here are my thoughts:

AK-KT
Flushdraw
(99-TT)
A8
98, 87
88

Most kings slow down on this turn card.
The flushdraw hate seing the turn pair the board.
All 8s obviously loves it.


CRAI :

KT, KQ checks behind, AK might bet.
(seing this villain is fishy, the money goes in if he has AK here)
High aggro factor, but seing I reraised him on the flop, + the board paired I think he does not bet the flush that often if I check to him.
Any trips bets here.
(and all the money goes in, he has 4 outs)
Quads does not matter, I get stacked


Bet/Shove :

KT-KQ calls maybe 50% Folds 50%. Ak calls 50% raises 50%.
(I don't think he can lay down AK here given his stats, but a KT-KJ I'd give him that fold)
Flushdraws he might push maybe 30% of the time
(he folds a flushdraw the other 60% and makes a terrible call the last 10%)
Quads does not matter, I get stacked
Trips shoves / raises and we are all in.

edit: he might also have a Kx where x is a heart, but I find it unlikely that he didn't push the flop with such a hand.
If he does have that however, I think the money goes in either way on the turn.

[CruS]

C/R loses value on the turn from Kx, but I will probably get a call at most rivers.
Bet/Shove earns a lot from flush draws at the turn, but if the C/R line gets a check behind and the flush hits, the money goes in.
If villain has trips / quads here the money goes in either way on the turn.

In conclusion I'd say it's pretty even but a slight edge for B/S line

[Upgrade_U]

Something I'd like to note here is that when your valuebets don't get called for a while, then don't start betting smaller or not betting at all, well here you can do that since you pretty much have the nuts and he can only catch cards that will make it worse for him but otherwise sets on drawy boards etc. you just have to bet them out instead of trying to trap

[bozzer]

why on earth would you go for a checkraise after three betting the flop??

[Perk76]

Most villans wont go for a check raise/b3b twice in the same hand. After the 1st chckraise, villan is most likely doubting his holdings, and will check behind alot of the time on the turn.

I like: "Bet 12. Shove river" hoping that he still may value a strong King/Aces hand and have you on maybe the same, flush draw, etc.

B3B then a check raise is just too strong looking.

[mbman]

Weakleading the turn is very hot here, give him a nice price to call with his king, and when he calls that, calling the river push will be cheap for him too!